November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[AbbyJr]

I hope your right haha

I hope I am too.

[AbbyJr]

Okay looking at stats, I think January 1954 was Abbotsford's snowiest month on record, at least since 1950. 140.1 cm fell.

During the 7 day period of January 20th-26th, 118.7 cm fell. Absolutely insane.

Just curious, if the January 2011 event had verified, would it have even come close to the intensity of the 1954 event?

[Typeing3]

Okay looking at stats, I think January 1954 was Abbotsford's snowiest month on record, at least since 1950. 140.1 cm fell.

During the 7 day period of January 20th-26th, 118.7 cm fell. Absolutely insane.

Just curious, if the January 2011 event had verified, would it have even come close to the intensity of the 1954 event?

FWIW the Blizzard of January 1971 was arguably even more impressive. 101cm fell in just five days at YVR.

And yes, what was modeled for Jan 2011 would probably have been similar to 1954. Instead it ended up being one of the most infamous model collapses we've ever seen.

[Typeing3]

Jet really gets cranking late next week...active NW flow. Textbook Nina pattern.

gfs_z500a_namer_33.png

gfs_uv250_namer_33.png

[Typeing3]

850mb temps remain below 0c through November 20th on the 00z ensembles. Ski hills will probably be open by late month if this verifies.

[AbbyJr]

FWIW the Blizzard of January 1971 was arguably even more impressive. 101cm fell in just five days at YVR.

And yes, what was modeled for Jan 2011 would probably have been similar to 1954. Instead it ended up being one of the most infamous model collapses we've ever seen.

This winter it will work out.

[Storm]

Possible snow Monday .

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_52.png

[Monty]

Possible snow Monday .

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_52.png

Afternoon arrival of precip is possibly a bit of a problem. Euro shows what would likely be mixed precip in a lot of the lower mainland Monday evening. Sticking snow level possibly 100-200m.

[PortKells]

850mb temps remain below 0c through November 20th on the 00z ensembles. Ski hills will probably be open by late month if this verifies.

Thank you for posting these. Finally some good news in this week/month/year of chaos. I’ve been waiting a long time to use my free birthday skiing at cypress in early December

[Antares]

Wow. I love that place even more now. Whitehorse is a hell of a town.

How is it there? It is near the top of my list of relocation candidates.

I've only been to western Yukon though, not Whitehorse itself.

[Monty]

Jet really gets cranking late next week...active NW flow. Textbook Nina pattern.
gfs_z500a_namer_33.pnggfs_uv250_namer_33.png

Definitely going to be watching for potential of a damaging windstorm given the strength of that jet and what appears to be some fairly mobile cold air moving south over the GOA.

[Glacier]

How is it there? It is near the top of my list of relocation candidates.

I've only been to western Yukon though, not Whitehorse itself.

Haines Junction? Beaver Creek? Mount Logan? I have a friend who had a lodge in Haines Junction that backed out onto Kluane National Park. He just sold it this summer.

It's interesting that Whitehorse got so much snow given how dry it is there. Much drier than areas north and east, but not as dry as Burwash to the west (only 4cm of snow on the ground there now).

Peak snow depths in the Yukon this month:
Burwash = 4 cm
IVVAVIK NAT. PARK = 7 cm
Haines Junction = 10 cm
Carmacks = 13 cm
Dawson = 16 cm
Mayo = 16 cm
Old Crow = 16 cm
Pelly Ranch = 17 cm (okay, good news, they have replaced the closed down 100 year old Pelly Ranch station with an automated station)
TAKHINI RIVER RANCH = 36 cm
Watson Lake = 38 cm
Whitehorse = 40 cm
Teslin = 42 cm
MACMILLAN PASS = 43 cm

[AbbyJr]

Definitely going to be watching for potential of a damaging windstorm given the strength of that jet and what appears to be some fairly mobile cold air moving south over the GOA.

Without a doubt. GEM looks very active. Multiple windstorms in the long range modelled. November 2006 redux?

[Antares]

Haines Junction? Beaver Creek? Mount Logan? I have a friend who had a lodge in Haines Junction that backed out onto Kluane National Park. He just sold it this summer.

It's interesting that Whitehorse got so much snow given how dry it is there. Much drier than areas north and east, but not as dry as Burwash to the west (only 4cm of snow on the ground there now).

Peak snow depths in the Yukon this month:
Burwash = 4 cm
IVVAVIK NAT. PARK = 7 cm
Haines Junction = 10 cm
Carmacks = 13 cm
Dawson = 16 cm
Mayo = 16 cm
Old Crow = 16 cm
Pelly Ranch = 17 cm (okay, good news, they have replaced the closed down 100 year old Pelly Ranch station with an automated station)
TAKHINI RIVER RANCH = 36 cm
Watson Lake = 38 cm
Whitehorse = 40 cm
Teslin = 42 cm
MACMILLAN PASS = 43 cm

Beaver Creek - Haines Junction - Haines, AK

Probably the most beautiful place I've ever seen is near Haines Junction or that tiny piece of BC between Haines and Haines Junction. My god it is gorgeous there.

[stuffradio]

SREFPlumes show 30% chance of pure snow Monday overnight with a total of just under 2CM of snow.