January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[PortKells]

18z GFS operational is on the warmer side of the ensemble mean (which now drops below -10c) in the mid to long range. At the risk of jinxing myself, I won't say colder runs ahead, but it's a good sign.

It pains me deeply to say this but I think the GEFS is leading the way. It's the most convincing signal in the models. It has remained consistent and quadrupled down on itself. The euro ensemble is good but it has that cutoff bias and the GEM ensemble is waffling around.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-8508400.png

[SouthSardiswx]

Bizarre that you would go there

For maps John nothing seldom gets posted here lots of old members are there even current.

[PortKells]

For maps John nothing seldom gets posted here lots of old members are there even current.

Tired of people complaining about this forum. Make it better then. I'll check that place out for maps sometimes but I've personally never posted there and I never will. So many jackasses and by the way, many of them want to suddenly annex this country and paint it fascist orange.

[SouthSardiswx]

Tired of people complaining about this forum. Make it better then. I'll check that place out for maps sometimes but I've personally never posted there and I never will. So many jackasses and by the way, many of them want to suddenly annex this country and paint it fascist orange.

I agree with you there Kells but this site is slow and limited l don't want to wait for 12 hours till someone posts a map. On the AF at least maps are posted often no need to read there posts.

[PortKells]

I agree with you there Kells but this site is slow and limited l don't want to wait for 12 hours till someone posts a map. On the AF at least maps are posted often no need to read there posts.

Yeah I get it, I'll go read it for that reason too. I also try to post maps too when I'm on my laptop (phone is annoying). But really the only difference I see is amount of people involved. So maybe we need to go recruit the Vlads and the Tyler Hamiltons of the world and see if we can get some more posters? Or just post here and hopefully someone replies.

Still there are so many things better about this forum than that one. Americans can be just so obnoxious in all circles and it's no exception.

If there's one thing I'd love here it's for climate change to not be taboo on this weather forum. We are adults and we can absolutely handle that discussion with some guidelines to follow. It's highly relevant to our weather. But other than that, I like it here and I'll just keep posting and hopefully we can build this community a bit.

[PortKells]

The euro is not good but I'm highly confident at the moment that it will rebound in our favour.

[John]

Tired of people complaining about this forum. Make it better then. I'll check that place out for maps sometimes but I've personally never posted there and I never will. So many jackasses and by the way, many of them want to suddenly annex this country and paint it fascist orange.

Amen!

[John]

Yeah I get it, I'll go read it for that reason too. I also try to post maps too when I'm on my laptop (phone is annoying). But really the only difference I see is amount of people involved. So maybe we need to go recruit the Vlads and the Tyler Hamiltons of the world and see if we can get some more posters? Or just post here and hopefully someone replies.

Still there are so many things better about this forum than that one. Americans can be just so obnoxious in all circles and it's no exception.

If there's one thing I'd love here it's for climate change to not be taboo on this weather forum. We are adults and we can absolutely handle that discussion with some guidelines to follow. It's highly relevant to our weather. But other than that, I like it here and I'll just keep posting and hopefully we can build this community a bit.

The only complaint I have is that I have to re-login every time which is annoying

[John]

For maps John nothing seldom gets posted here lots of old members are there even current.

Nothing gets posted when nothing is going on, which makes sense to me

[PortKells]

The only complaint I have is that I have to re-login every time which is annoying

Ok I'll agree that is insanely annoying. But honestly...meh. Now with facial recognition its a two second process.

[PortKells]

Here's a REALLY nice looking run.

ecmwf-aifs-all-namer-z500_anom-1737914400-1738454400-1738843200-10-2.gif

[Catnip]

The euro is not good but I'm highly confident at the moment that it will rebound in our favour.

GFS led the way in denying the last modelled cold snap… maybe it’s right again?

[Hound]

The only complaint I have is that I have to re-login every time which is annoying

That should not happen. It's an issue with cookies on your PC. If you save the cookie you should not have to re-login every time. But if you empty your cache each time the cookie will be deleted thus having to login every time.

[Pomoman]

That should not happen. It's an issue with cookies on your PC. If you save the cookie you should not have to re-login every time. But if you empty your cache each time the cookie will be deleted thus having to login every time.

I was an iPhone user and rarely did it log me out.
Switched to Google Pixel and always accept cookies/don't clear cache and it logs me out if inactive for say 30 mins. I also don't close my tabs as to not lose my place. Have no idea about these things tho.

[AbbyJr]

The euro is not good but I'm highly confident at the moment that it will rebound in our favour.

While I could be wrong, I don't think it's likely that the cold will eject way out into the Pacific as today's runs have shown. Usually, the cold trends east rather than west. If I recall correctly, somebody had mentioned a while back that the models tried ejecting the cold offshore in February 2017. But in the end, it ended up going further west. We got buried in snow with that event. Personally, I'd much rather see the cold being too far west at this point rather than too far east. The models, especially the operational runs, are going to flip flop. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see better trends either tonight or tomorrow. But I'm no expert and of course I'm biased. But I just don't see the west trends verifying. My bigger concern would be this potential cold snap being cut short by energy from the NW Territories ripping apart the GOA block as shown on the Euro AIFS runs today.