November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[wetcoast91]

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Know a winter enthusiast that moved from White Rock to to Barrie, Ontario...going to be a fun season for him.

[Catnip]

Know a winter enthusiast that moved from White Rock to to Barrie, Ontario...going to be a fun season for him.

Things will switch up a bit as we get later into Dec/Jan.

Think Cold and Snow... C’MON!!!!!!!

[Pomoman]

One really has to wonder how accurate models will be this winter if fewer planes in the air to record observations. Also seems like every year one or two drastic changes come out of nowhere leading to a huge pattern change. I’m personally not taking any stock past 7 days. Just a gut feeling long term projections won’t often pan out more than ever. But I don’t know much in this topic so I’ll just hush now.

I am curious about the upcoming inversion though. I am in the fog and low clouds pretty much every time it rains but on sunny days where fog lies low it is pretty spectacular living just above it all. Sunshine blue skies with all the murk below. It’s good stuff. But I want my snow darnit.

[PortKells]

Let's wait for the long range EPS before we can truly confirm that winter is indeed #cancelled.

[Catnip]

Let's wait for the long range EPS before we can truly confirm that winter is indeed #cancelled.

This!

Is hasn’t even started yet.

[PortKells]

This!

Is hasn’t even started yet.

Never too early to press the cancel button.

[Catnip]

Never too early to press the cancel button.

It’s not over till Nito brings out the pineapple forks.

[Bonovox]

Haha. I'm not sure what the panic is. La Nina winters are historically back loaded. Nito is just personifying his usual warm bias.

[Bonovox]

The PNA goes neutral mid month and probably negative thereafter.

#SnowyChristmas

[Michael1]

Haha. I'm not sure what the panic is. La Nina winters are historically back loaded. Nito is just personifying his usual warm bias.

Yes! And with the world being so perfect right now, can't we all use a dose of depression and a swift kick in the nuts, to remove all hope of any cold this winter?

[Bonovox]

One really has to wonder how accurate models will be this winter if fewer planes in the air to record observations. Also seems like every year one or two drastic changes come out of nowhere leading to a huge pattern change. I’m personally not taking any stock past 7 days. Just a gut feeling long term projections won’t often pan out more than ever. But I don’t know much in this topic so I’ll just hush now.

I am curious about the upcoming inversion though. I am in the fog and low clouds pretty much every time it rains but on sunny days where fog lies low it is pretty spectacular living just above it all. Sunshine blue skies with all the murk below. It’s good stuff. But I want my snow darnit.

There was a preliminary study done about the lack of aircraft data. The effects over the mid-latitudes is modest at best.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... B-CQEIofHg

[Catnip]

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[Monty]

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Looks good for Barrie Ontario. There should be an active storm track into the Great Lakes many times this winter.

[PortKells]

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I'd say thats trended west at least?

[Typeing3]

It will be. Probably jumping the gun. I’m feeling something closer to Christmas.

Agree. Models often show premature pattern changes in the long range.

Think we'll be waiting until after the 20th or so for any type of a favourable pattern for lowland cold or snow.