January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

Look at this. A clear signal for Arctic air on the 24th.

D4D91B8D-412A-456B-98C6-A8B8D11BBB6E.png

Guess I jinxed it!

[Typeing3]

What do you think is the best most realistic scenario?

At this range? I'd go with a blend of 96, 02 and 08.

[Bonovox]

That's a pretty decent trough over the West.

[PortKells]

I remember reading this wasn’t possible because the Arctic has been warm recently.

I hope that wasn’t me because that’s not how that works
2016/17 was great here but arctic sea ice was record low most winter. That air is still cold for our standards.

[Bonovox]

Our Canadian friend the GEPS says don't forget about me.

[PortKells]

Not one. Not one warm outlier. Incredible handling by the gfs.

3BF2954F-3BA1-472B-BD55-42E3F1D6DE92.png

[Monty]

I hope that wasn’t me because that’s not how that works
2016/17 was great here but arctic sea ice was record low most winter. That air is still cold for our standards.

I don’t think it was you. Even if the arctic is warm. -20 to -30 is still pretty cold.

[Typeing3]

That's a pretty decent trough over the West.

Pretty weak signal for a SE ridge. Cold air could easily slide east of the Rockies.

[Bonovox]

Our Canadian friend the GEPS says don't forget about me.

[Bonovox]

Day 10-15 loop of the 00z GEFS.

[Monty]

That block is getting pretty far west by day 14. Hard to imagine a dry cold with that configuration.

[Bonovox]

Pretty weak signal for a SE ridge. Cold air could easily slide east of the Rockies.

Yeah, the block sets up a bit too far west for comfort too, but we'll see.

[SouthSardiswx]

Not one. Not one warm outlier. Incredible handling by the gfs.

3BF2954F-3BA1-472B-BD55-42E3F1D6DE92.png

nice! not one pineapple for El Nito.

[Bonovox]

[Typeing3]

That block is getting pretty far west by day 14. Hard to imagine a dry cold with that configuration.

I'll need to find some examples but I'm pretty sure we have done well (in terms of cold) in the past with a ridge axis that far west.