January 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[LadnerWeather]

Drove through the heavy shower moving through south delta just now. Cold rain in some spots but as soon as precip gets heavy it changes to wet snow. There’s some slush on a lot of roads and vehicles but it’s not quite cold enough for straight snow out here

[WeatherPro]

Lousy mixed precip here right now *grumbles*

Have to wait until a bit later tonight for any changeover. Especially towards morning.

[John]

Busted Forecast!

New Snowstorm Warning

Sorry guys, I flubbed the last snow forecast. The models were looking good, and then the system went further north, and the warmer air invaded. It looked so good, but I swear it just want's to prove me wrong all the time.

This week looks snowy. Once again the models are calling for a pretty significant snowstorm on Wed & Thurs.
There seems to be a bit more model agreement this time, so hopefully you guys will score the snowfall you all deserve.
Amounts look to vary anywhere from 15 to 35CM depending on elevation and further east you go.
Outflow wont be too strong but will be spilling out to cool temps.

Right now even tonight and tomorrow look to be a bit cooler, and possibility of snow over higher elevations is at about 80%
There could be some over-performance if some of the stronger cells stall a bit or develop larger than modeled. Dewpoints at sea level look to be about 0 to +1 so any heavy showers should pull down temps to even have snow at sea level, aka Richmond. But that would be a bonus1!

Cold air is pushing south out of the interior now, a bit ahead of what was forecast, so who knows. A big surprise could pop up tonight or tomorrow.

*There was a positive forecast fail on the last snowstorm. Nanaimo and certain areas on the East side of Vancouver Island overproduced HUGE. Nobody expected Nanaimo to get over 30CM. Interesting stuff.

Until next time!
I'll check in tomorrow to see what the big storm on Wed night looks like.
*Just looked at the maps you guys posted, hmm This coming storm may be a high impact heavy snowfall more serious than anything that has fallen in one time this season yet.

Thanks for the update see you tomorrow!!

[WeatherPro]

Looks to be a huge band heading over Vancouver Island right now, if it stays intact it should really deliver.

[Typeing3]

This will be crippling if it materializes, because it will not be dry fluff like we woke to on the 30th. Then, it did not matter that cars scraped bottom on it. With the sort of heavy, wet snow that falls near the freezing mark, cars will get bogged down in droves.

Yep. Looks like a classic Vancouver snowstorm.

[Storm]

Lousy mixed precip here right now *grumbles*

Pretty evident here. Snow just started Herr in Burnaby.

Screenshot_20220103-211541_MyRadar.jpg

[John]

Looks to be a huge band heading over Vancouver Island right now, if it stays intact it should really deliver.

What time does it reach Abby?

[Monty]

01z HRRR. Total snowfall to 10am tomorrow.
Screenshot_2022-01-03-18-31-27(1).png

Perfect. Shows me getting zero. Usually the less it shows the more it snows here.

[Storm]

Perfect. Shows me getting zero. Usually the less it shows the more it snows here.

It did really well last time here.

[Slytyguy]

Even when I started getting into the weather in the mid 90s, all we had was TWN and EC's weather phone.

Thats totally what I grew up with too. Although Norm Grohmann I always watched too

[Storm]

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... NDz4Q&s=19

[Typeing3]

Light snow here. Small flakes.

0.7c, dp -0.1c.

[WeatherPro]

What time does it reach Abby?

Depends if it gets torn apart after crossing V.I. and the Straight or not. Otherwise 1 to 2 hours?

[WeatherPro]

Something you guys might like.

snowtemps.jpg

[Nimbus2]

The front is now at Cashe Creek. EC has winds shifting westerly in Kamloops tomorrow evening. Judging by the progression, wouldn't the winds shift to westerly in Kamloops later tonight? Is the front forecast to momentarily stall? As it is, EC's forecasts today re: this surge of Arctic air has been a total bust in terms of timing and the depth of the cold.

Arctic front looks to be through Kamloops now, ahead of schedule!

CYKA 040500Z 26021G38KT 40SM DRSN FEW030 SCT060 OVC150 M07/M12 A2959 RMK SC2SC1AC5 PRESRR SLP044
CYKA 040400Z 27024KT 40SM DRSN FEW060 BKN140 M04/M07 A2951 RMK SC2AC5 PRESRR SLP013
CYKA 040300Z 08009KT 050V140 40SM SCT060 SCT110 BKN140 M01/M04 A2944 RMK SC3ACC1AC3 SLP990