November 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[Monty]

1916-17: La Nina/Low increasing solar
1930-31: El Nino/Low decreasing solar
1946-47: Neutral/Moderate increasing solar
1950-51: Neutral/Moderate decreasing solar
1956-57: Neutral/High increasing solar
1972-73: El Nino/Low decreasing solar

Neutral! Okay. I’ve seen enough. I’m doing it boys and girls. Pulling the trigger on JANUARY. Time to break the curse.

[Catnip]

Neutral! Okay. I’ve seen enough. I’m doing it boys and girls. Pulling the trigger on JANUARY. Time to break the curse.

[Catnip]

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... 06178?s=21

[AbbyJr]

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... 35396?s=20

Not all experts agree with him.

Washington State Climatologist Nicholas Bond said that the blob really only affects temperatures a couple miles inland. It doesn't really affect the wind and pressure patterns.

Further, Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said "The blob usually doesn’t play a large role in climate outcomes over North America."

The blob can affect temperatures off the nearby coasts, but it doesn't necessarily drive pressure patterns.

From my understanding, the blob may cause temperatures to run a bit warmer then normal during on an onshore flow, but it doesn't really drive the pressure patterns.

The 2015 blob was blamed for the western warmth and eastern snows. But Mike Halpert isn't convinced. He said:

"This is a questionable and "overly simple narrative. Unlike El Niño — a climate cycle sparked by unusually warm water in the tropics that can have a major impact on the atmosphere and weather patterns — a blob of warm water that far up in the Northern Hemisphere has "fairly minimal" effects on the atmosphere. In the tropics where El Niño is, the ocean drives the atmosphere, but up in the northern latitudes like the south of Alaska, the atmosphere drives the ocean."

To clarify, 2015 was a strong El Nino, which does significantly affect the overall weather patterns. So there is no reason to assume the blob was responsible for the persistent West Coast ridging. Rather, the blob was a result of the persistent West Coast ridging, which resulted in the winter outcome.

That said, I do think we do tend to have better winters with colder than normals waters right off our coast, but that alone and the blob does not necessarily dictate the where the ridges and troughs will set up.

[Typeing3]

If my memory serves me right that was a great winter with frozen ponds and lots of snow.

Yeah. It was actually quite the stretch of great winters; 71-72 and 72-73 were quite good as well.

[Coquitlam79]

The blob does not always translate to ridging patterns..some of the stormiest weather over the past few years occured with the blob still intact. Warmer water can also mean more precip. Look at the coast of Peru during a strong El Nino for proof of that. For our region, it all depends on the upper level pattern which is a result of so many variables on a global scale not just a relatively small patch of warm water off the coast. It's safe to say a persistent ridge pattern may have caused the blob and storms will eventually dissipate it once the pattern breaks. But I don't buy that the blob is the reason for persistent ridging.

[Catnip]

18Z is pretty dry right through next Wednesday. After a bit of rain Wednesday, dry right through to Nov 20!

[AbbyJr]

The blob does not always translate to ridging patterns..some of the stormiest weather over the past few years occured with the blob still intact. Warmer water can also mean more precip. Look at the coast of Peru during a strong El Nino for proof of that. For our region, it all depends on the upper level pattern which is a result of so many variables on a global scale not just a relatively small patch of warm water off the coast. It's safe to say a persistent ridge pattern may have caused the blob and storms will eventually dissipate it once the pattern breaks. But I don't buy that the blob is the reason for persistent ridging.

I agree. Did you see my earlier post on here responding to Chris Doyle?

[Coquitlam79]

I agree. Did you see my earlier post on here responding to Chris Doyle?

Yes I did. Well said.

[Canada Goose]

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This is from Tyler Hamilton's twitter.

Some fun facts:

- 1975 saw the driest September (0.3mm) and the wettest October (287.6mm).
- In 1991, without the 0.4mm on Sept. 28, the streak could have been 32 days (Sept. 14 to Oct. 15)!
- In 1987, without the 0.2mm on Oct. 3, the streak could have been 28 days!

Driest November since 1937 in YVR:

1952 33,3
1976 48,4
1943 59,9
1993 63,1
1956 70,4
2000 74
1985 74,5
1957 76,4
1938 76,8
1940 79

[Coquitlam79]

18Z is pretty dry right through next Wednesday. After a bit of rain Wednesday, dry right through to Nov 20!

Ya I saw that. That's insane. Would mean a record setting dry spell (for this time of year). And watch, the media will blame climate change! November 2000 was similar. It didnt really rain until after the 20th that year. The entire 2000-2001 season was one of the driest on record.

[Typeing3]

Neutral! Okay. I’ve seen enough. I’m doing it boys and girls. Pulling the trigger on JANUARY. Time to break the curse.

January stats for those three enso neutral analogues....

1947
YVR Snowfall: 35.6cm
YVR Mean temp: 0.5C
YXX Snowfall: 23.0cm
YXX Mean temp: -0.4C

1951
YVR Snowfall: 26.0cm
YVR Mean temp: 2.5C
YXX Snowfall: 19.2cm
YXX Mean temp: 1.6C

1957
YVR Snowfall: 35.6cm
YVR Mean temp: -1.6C
YXX Snowfall: 51.1cm
YXX Mean temp: -3.2C

Average across these analogues
YVR snowfall: 32.4cm
YVR Mean temp: 0.5C
YXX Snowfall: 31.1cm
YXX Mean temp: -0.7C

Taken at face value, this would be our coldest January since 1993.

[AbbyJr]

January stats for those three enso neutral analogues....

1947
YVR Snowfall: 35.6cm
YVR Mean temp: 0.5C
YXX Snowfall: 23.0cm
YXX Mean temp: -0.4C

1951
YVR Snowfall: 26.0cm
YVR Mean temp: 2.5C
YXX Snowfall: 19.2cm
YXX Mean temp: 1.6C

1957
YVR Snowfall: 35.6cm
YVR Mean temp: -1.6C
YXX Snowfall: 51.1cm
YXX Mean temp: -3.2C

Average across these analogues
YVR snowfall: 32.4cm
YVR Mean temp: 0.5C
YXX Snowfall: 31.1cm
YXX Mean temp: -0.7C

Taken at face value, this would be our coldest January since 1993.

On December 4, 1956, YXX recorded snow with a NE outflow gust of 113 km/h and a wind chill of -21C. Thats a blizzard!

Then on January 15, 1957, YXX recorded a NE outflow gust of 109 km/h with a wind chill of -15C.

Certainly a decent winter to say the least.

Interesting enough, the November leading up to that was chilly and dry. YXX only recorded 88.4 mm.

[Typeing3]

Using the same January analogues for two other stations...

1947
New Westminster Snowfall: 34.7cm
New Westminster Mean temp: 0.4C
Shawnigan Lake Snowfall: 70.2cm
Shawnigan Lake Mean temp: 0.4C

1951
New Westminster Snowfall: 69.8cm
New Westminster Mean temp: 1.4C
Shawnigan Lake Snowfall: 80.0cm
Shawnigan Lake Mean temp: 1.2C

1957
New Westminster Snowfall: 48.8cm
New Westminster Mean temp: -2.1C
Shawnigan Lake Snowfall: 42.9cm
Shawnigan Lake Mean temp: -1.7C

Average across these analogues
New Westminster Snowfall: 51.1cm
New Westminster Mean temp: -0.1C
Shawnigan Lake Snowfall: 64.3cm
Shawnigan Lake Mean temp: 0.0C

[Forrest Gump]

Hey , look what I found! ....when did it snow on Burnaby mountain?

20191104_144726.jpg