October 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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SouthSardiswx
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Re: October 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

:cry:
Michael1 wrote: Mon Oct 14, 2024 8:25 pm With apologies to the Longest Johns, I have constructed this little ditty in honour of the up coming season of models, hopes and disappointments:

The models showed us a hurricane; a weather bomb, with torrential rain;
The wind died down and the sun came out- the forecast failed again!

Chorus:
Hey! hey! the weatherman come,
to give us forecasts of rain and sun;
He is rarely on the ball
So take your maps and leave.
Not bad M1, It's currently 13c @ the pond in south Sardis.
It's the 7th annual 2 old retired geezer's inaccurate snowfall contest
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm
:hockey: South Sardinies: 0cm
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
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PortKells
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Re: October 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

tyweather wrote: Mon Oct 14, 2024 2:02 pm Snowy mountains?

Image
Hmm. Too early, could lead to a 2021 situation. Definitely something to keep an eye on.
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AbbyJr
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Re: October 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Major atmospheric river next weekend? Almost within 96hrs… :silent: :wave:

Here are the 24hr rain totals from 8PM Friday to 8PM Saturday:
IMG_0103.png
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Central Abbotsford
50m (164ft)

2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

:team: :snowwindow: :snowman:
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Typeing3
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Re: October 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

AbbyJr wrote: Tue Oct 15, 2024 9:30 am Major atmospheric river next weekend? Almost within 96hrs… :silent: :wave:

Here are the 24hr rain totals from 8PM Friday to 8PM Saturday:

IMG_0103.png
I feel like we're overdue for a big one in October. Bring it on! :raindrip:
:typing: :type3:
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Re: October 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Typeing3 wrote: Tue Oct 15, 2024 10:31 am I feel like we're overdue for a big one in October. Bring it on! :raindrip:
Last big one in October was 2003 if I recall correctly. The typical YXX rain shadow was invisible during that event. While I doubt totals will reach 2003 levels this weekend, there is potential for some very heavy rainfall. :thumbup:
Central Abbotsford
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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

:team: :snowwindow: :snowman:
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Re: October 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

AbbyJr wrote: Tue Oct 15, 2024 9:30 am Major atmospheric river next weekend? Almost within 96hrs… :silent: :wave:

Here are the 24hr rain totals from 8PM Friday to 8PM Saturday:

IMG_0103.png
It would probably be closer to 50-70 mm instead of 100 but we will see. I remember we kept thinking the 2021 atmospheric river event was way overdone.
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Re: October 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Source: https://x.com/50ShadesofVan/status/1846241913617395950

Screenshot 2024-10-15 at 1.58.33 PM.png
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Central Abbotsford
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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

:team: :snowwindow: :snowman:
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Re: October 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Where's Neetz?

:dancepine: :dancepine: :dancepine:
Image
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: October 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Some impressive rainfall totals from today's 12z Euro. Island looks to take the brunt of the precip.

Still a few days away though. Subject to changes, as always.

Image


wet.png
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: October 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Wouldn't this be nice.

:14clown: FS
cfs_t2m_anom_northamerica_202501_1.png
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: October 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Catnip wrote: Tue Oct 15, 2024 3:25 pm Some impressive rainfall totals from today's 12z Euro. Island looks to take the brunt of the precip.

Still a few days away though. Subject to changes, as always.





wet.png

There's likely going to be some intense rainfall totals somewhere in the PNW next weekend. While SWBC will likely take the brunt of it, there still remains considerable uncertainty as to where the heaviest rain will setup. All depends on the exact placement of the AR, which is still unknown. Given all the run to run variability, we will have to wait a few more days to get some more clarity. Regardless, looks like a significant rainfall event. :thumbup: :wave: :raindrip:
Central Abbotsford
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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

:team: :snowwindow: :snowman:
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Re: October 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

:alert:
Wet flurries will make it down to the Similkameeeens in the next 48 hours :shock: :shock:
only a few hundred kms away..well and a few thousand feet in elevation too..lets face the facts :think:
And here it is..December 2024 all snow geeks have been waiting for :silent: ..with the LR weather "charts" calling for a cold and snowy month. Where's the troffing? :silent: :silent:
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
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Re: October 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Lots of instability with this incoming Low..snow levels will plummet in the next 72 hours :flakey: :flakey:
#ilovetroffs
And here it is..December 2024 all snow geeks have been waiting for :silent: ..with the LR weather "charts" calling for a cold and snowy month. Where's the troffing? :silent: :silent:
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
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Re: October 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

Hawk wrote: Wed Oct 16, 2024 8:10 am Lots of instability with this incoming Low..snow levels will plummet in the next 72 hours :flakey: :flakey:
#ilovetroffs
Trough after trough!
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Re: October 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Hearing thunder in East Van.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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