December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image.png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (1).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (2).png

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20231226204927-6638b977b609c75d9eec2eacf041ce54ef5b93cf.png

20231226204911-0995956a0313711563e4fb1832c7a6fd7e8259b7.png

[Coquitlam79]

Anyone else experience the short intense wind storm last night around midnight? Blew a bunch of stuff around here.

Seems EC recorded S 52 gust 78 at Abby at 1AM last night. My guess was 80k here.

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... 2764158163

Yes, I was at a family member's place near Kits beach and it was raining moderately all evening until around midnight we had a sudden period of torrential rain that lasted about 20 minutes along with gusty winds I would say 60k, at least. i screenshoted the radar. Looked pretty intense on the radar.

Screenshot_20231226_000219_Samsung Internet.jpg

[Catnip]

Euro showing some potential.

Needs some notches. Could be a transitional setup.

2.png

[AbbyJr]

Looks like a major SSW event is likely early January. While this would likely favour the east for cold in such a strong El Niño, I could totally see a brief discharge of arctic air into the PNW before it slides east. At this point, even a transitory arctic blast would be nice.

10hpazonalecmwf26dec.png

[stuffradio]

I renewed my monthly Wxbell subscription as a Christmas present from my wife. I usually keep it for 4-6 months/year while the weather can be interesting and then I unsubscribe closer to Summer when we warm up and the weather is benign with the exception of hot spells. I will start posting some of those charts more often again

[AbbyJr]

Euro showing some potential.

Needs some notches. Could be a transitional setup.



2.png

Would be nice to see a February 1989 transitory arctic blast. The cold crashes down straight from Alaska and sets up an extreme outflow event for a few days before the arctic high moves over top of BC and the cold slides east. Would be an acceptable trade off from a 2 week period of modified arctic air. But I think both are likely in the category of wishful thinking. But maybe a few days of modified arctic air is doable this winter?

[stuffradio]

Some nice charts this morning

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-CYXX-indiv_snow-3548800.png

ecmwf-weeklies-all2-avg-pna-box-3548800.png

[John]

Some nice charts this morning

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-CYXX-indiv_snow-3548800.png

ecmwf-weeklies-all2-avg-pna-box-3548800.png

Nooooo I am
Scared!!!!


Cool

[SouthSardiswx]

Nooooo I am
Scared!!!!


Cool

John! scared of what?

[SouthSardiswx]

Some nice charts this morning

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-CYXX-indiv_snow-3548800.png

ecmwf-weeklies-all2-avg-pna-box-3548800.png

Probably gone by this afternoon after the egg grogs kick in Stufflers. Looking forward to the extra 30 seconds of light today.

[stuffradio]

Some colder notes in January.

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-nw-snow_240hr_cm-5017600.png

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t2m_c_anom_10day-5017600.png

[SouthSardiswx]

Some colder notes in January.

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-nw-snow_240hr_cm-5017600.png
cmc-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t2m_c_anom_10day-5017600.png

Did you get the A.I. version of WX Bell my friend Stuffman

[wetcoast91]

Nice and mild this morning.

[SouthSardiswx]

Euro showing some potential.

Needs some notches. Could be a transitional setup.



2.png

Here's your nachos Catnipple.

eyJidWNrZXQiOiAiaW5mbHVlbnN0ZXJfcHJvZHVjdGlvbiIsICJrZXkiOiAibWVkaWEvcHJvZHVjdC9pbWFnZS9hYmVhMmQ3Yi1iZjUwLT...yb3VuZCI6IHsiciI6IDEsICJnIjogMSwgImIiOiAxLCAiYWxwaGEiOiAwfSwgIndpdGhvdXRFbmxhcmdlbWVudCI6IHRydWV9fSwgImV4dGVuZCI6IHt9fQ==.jpeg

[SouthSardiswx]

That's some mighty fine snow removal there.

https://fb.watch/pc2_2t_zv8/?mibextid=Nif5oz