November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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AbbyJr
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Typeing3 wrote: Mon Nov 23, 2020 12:37 am Agreed. We had one very cold day with regionwide highs around or below -6c sandwiched by a couple other subreezing highs but overall the cold snap last January wasn't very significant compared to previous events in the general timeframe.

YVR still hasn't dropped below -10c in January since 2004 and our last "cold" January was way back in 1993.
Good point. Abbotsford actually saw very little snow during that arctic blast. Hopefully by mid-late December we see something good. I'd love to have a cold and snowy pattern setup December 20-30th. Would be epic to see a Christmas day snowstorm. :D :thumbup:
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

12z EPS. :problem:
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

AbbyJr wrote: Mon Nov 23, 2020 11:48 am Good point. Abbotsford actually saw very little snow during that arctic blast. Hopefully by mid-late December we see something good. I'd love to have a cold and snowy pattern setup December 20-30th. Would be epic to see a Christmas day snowstorm. :D :thumbup:
The night/early morning snowfall on Jan 14/15th was pretty special though.

Temps hovered between -7c and -12c across the lower mainland with 10-30cm of snow depending on location.

That combo of cold/snow is a one in five or ten year type thing around here these days.
Last edited by Typeing3 on Mon Nov 23, 2020 12:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Bonovox wrote: Mon Nov 23, 2020 11:58 am 12z EPS. :problem:
Looks very ninoish in the long range. Very mild across most of NA except across the southern tier of the states. Split flow for us in the PNW. Southern jet ramps up and delivers cool and wet conditions for the american SE.
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Typeing3 wrote: Mon Nov 23, 2020 12:10 pm Looks very ninoish in the long range. Very mild across most of NA except across the southern tier of the states. Split flow for us in the PNW. Southern jet ramps up and delivers cool and wet conditions for the american SE.
I mean, what would be more 2020 than another sad and mild December? Especially after all those epic looking forecast maps we keep seeing.
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

AbbyJr wrote: Mon Nov 23, 2020 11:48 am Good point. Abbotsford actually saw very little snow during that arctic blast. Hopefully by mid-late December we see something good. I'd love to have a cold and snowy pattern setup December 20-30th. Would be epic to see a Christmas day snowstorm. :D :thumbup:
I felt bad for you, almost everyone else got slammed that week. And it was like Big White style powder.
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

:dunno:
388F4154-F490-4E25-9D92-3DB93E14ACF2.png
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Dang......
27DAF546-5B9F-49D6-B2B8-801E2F982FE8.png
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Catnip wrote: Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:54 pm :dunno:
#SnowyChristmas

;)
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Antares »

Catnip wrote: Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:55 pm Dang......

27DAF546-5B9F-49D6-B2B8-801E2F982FE8.png
That looks weird.

Well if that verifies or something like it verifies, then I expect the opposite to happen in the near future as well. :thumbup: :snowwindow: :snowmobile:
It always snows in December in the Kootenays :clap:
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

PortKells wrote: Mon Nov 23, 2020 12:18 pm I felt bad for you, almost everyone else got slammed that week. And it was like Big White style powder.
Yeah even Chilliwack and Mission got slammed. Abbotsford was shadowed for the most part. One of the most frustrating arctic blasts for my area I've seen since moving here in 2004. :x :thumbdown:
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Abby_wx »

AbbyJr wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:19 pm Didn't we break the January course this past January?
I guess it depends on how you look at it. As a singular event, I'd say yes... but in terms of making up for lost ground, it's not even close. We'll need about three of last January back-to-back, or one epic January with 100 cm.

The same goes for December. We've had just one good December since 2008 (2016).
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Harooch »

Bonovox wrote: Mon Nov 23, 2020 11:58 am 12z EPS. :problem:
Grossss. A couple troughs but horribly ridgey

Good thing is that will flop 5 times in the next 5 days.
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Abby_wx wrote: Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:11 pm I guess it depends on how you look at it. As a singular event, I'd say yes... but in terms of making up for lost ground, it's not even close. We'll need about three of last January back-to-back, or one epic January with 100 cm.

The same goes for December. We've had just one good December since 2008 (2016).
And that's just to get back on track to the 1981-2010 averages...nevermind the old 1971-2000 or 1961-1990 averages. January has warmed more than any other month in our climate...from averaging 2.4c and 26.4cm on the 1941-1971 normals to averaging 4.2c and 11.4cm today (at YVR).

We would probably need at least four or five top tier Januaries in a row (mean temp below 0C and 50cm+ of snow) at this point to make up for lost ground and balance out the averages closer to what they were back then.
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Typeing3 wrote: Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:48 pm And that's just to get back on track to the 1981-2010 averages...nevermind the old 1971-2000 or 1961-1990 averages. January has warmed more than any other month in our climate...from averaging 2.4c and 26.4cm on the 1941-1971 normals to averaging 4.2c and 11.4cm today (at YVR).

We would probably need at least four or five top tier Januaries in a row (mean temp below 0C and 50cm+ of snow) at this point to make up for lost ground and balance out the averages closer to what they were back then.
I just hope we don't see another 1999/2000 dud this winter. With all the hype, it would be a major letdown.

Models don't look encouraging at the moment. :thumbdown:
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