October 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Bonovox
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Re: October 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Mon Oct 09, 2023 6:52 am Anyone feel this last evening :? :o l didn't at my work in Abbs down near Sumas.
I saw that alert, but didn't feel anything up this way. Unless, I am mistaken, it looks like it struck on an offshoot of the Seattle Fault. The USGS worries more about that fault than the Cascadia Subduction zone for Seattle proper. It can unleash earthquakes up to 7.0 right under the city itself.
Spring/Summer :sick: Fall/Winter :thumbup:

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Wx Station: https://tempestwx.com/station/41362/grid
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Re: October 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

The CFS always has something fun to look at.

:lol:
temp.png
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: October 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image.png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (1).png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (2).png



---------------------------------------------
20231010010805-a6d9491386fbc4549f4e9964fac93629e6507743.png
20231010010749-fd2557181a98fc65b025377a16cf23362f76f409.png
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:typing: :type3:
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Re: October 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Catnip wrote: Mon Oct 09, 2023 3:13 pm The CFS always has something fun to look at.

:lol:

temp.png
:14clown: :14clown: :14clown: :clap: :lol:
Central Abbotsford
50m (164ft)

2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

:team: :snowwindow: :snowman:
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Re: October 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

AbbyJr wrote: Mon Oct 09, 2023 7:29 pm :14clown: :14clown: :14clown: :clap: :lol:
Mid October Arctic air :shock: snowfall maps plz. :clap:
It's the 7th annual 2 old retired geezer's inaccurate snowfall contest
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm
:hockey: South Sardinies: 0cm
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
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Re: October 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Couldn't post earlier l was getting an error message.
It's currently raining and 13c @ the pond in south Sardis. Perhaps too much turkey and pumpkin 🎃 🥧
Screenshot_20231009_222503_Chrome.jpg
:x
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It's the 7th annual 2 old retired geezer's inaccurate snowfall contest
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm
:hockey: South Sardinies: 0cm
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
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Re: October 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Typeing3 wrote: Mon Oct 09, 2023 6:08 pm 12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image.png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (1).png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (2).png




---------------------------------------------
20231010010805-a6d9491386fbc4549f4e9964fac93629e6507743.png
20231010010749-fd2557181a98fc65b025377a16cf23362f76f409.png
The GFS resembles my heart watching a Knuckles game and the bottom my blood pressure. :sick:
We reached a high of 19c in the central valley today and 4.3mm of precip since midnight.
It's the 7th annual 2 old retired geezer's inaccurate snowfall contest
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm
:hockey: South Sardinies: 0cm
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
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Re: October 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Mon Oct 09, 2023 11:33 pm Couldn't post earlier l was getting an error message.
It's currently raining and 13c @ the pond in south Sardis. Perhaps too much turkey and pumpkin 🎃 🥧
Screenshot_20231009_222503_Chrome.jpg
:x
Too much eggrog ;)

The CFSv2 Monthly is now even hinting at below normal temps in northern BC for November. At the start of the month, November was a North America wide torchfest.
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Re: October 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

stuffradio wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2023 7:42 am Too much eggrog ;)

The CFSv2 Monthly is now even hinting at below normal temps in northern BC for November. At the start of the month, November was a North America wide torchfest.
Perhaps the models are struggling with Jr. man's -PDO -QBO and the Knuckles chances to make the playoffs stove top Stuffy man. :D :thumbup:
It's the 7th annual 2 old retired geezer's inaccurate snowfall contest
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm
:hockey: South Sardinies: 0cm
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
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Re: October 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

stuffradio wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2023 7:42 am Too much eggrog ;)

The CFSv2 Monthly is now even hinting at below normal temps in northern BC for November. At the start of the month, November was a North America wide torchfest.
Front loaded winter!
:typing: :type3:
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Re: October 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Typeing3 wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2023 7:54 am Front loaded winter!
Oh l hope not but your most likely correct Tbar if that's the case hopefully the Knucklebrains better keep me interested while we torch through winter. :(
It's the 7th annual 2 old retired geezer's inaccurate snowfall contest
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm
:hockey: South Sardinies: 0cm
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
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Re: October 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Amazing how much the fall colors progressed over the long weekend. Was in the Squamish area, and on Friday afternoon I drove through a tunnel of mostly-green bigleaf maples with a splash of colour here and there. By Sunday afternoon, they were almost solid yellow.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: October 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2023 7:59 am Oh l hope not but your most likely correct Tbar if that's the case hopefully the Knucklebrains better keep me interested while we torch through winter. :(
1991/92: one paltry October snow. Zilch for the rest.

If you have low expectations you can't be disappointed.
2024-25 season stats:
Climo :cancel: 0 to 0 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 1 trace (Teflon on Nov 18)
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Re: October 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2023 7:59 am Oh l hope not but your most likely correct Tbar if that's the case hopefully the Knucklebrains better keep me interested while we torch through winter. :(
I would still consider December to be a part of the Front-Loaded definition. If we had cold/snow in December, it would still be pretty good.
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Re: October 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Nordelian »

ECMWF seasonal forecast also hinting at a cooler trend in Nov/Dec with the torch coming in Jan/Feb

Here's December
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