September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Roberts Creeker
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

...Perhaps getting an edge of the massive heat dome building... I felt a surprisingly warm breeze when I was outside this evening. Beautiful sky tonight but my camera was outside so no pictures of it. Lots of wispy clouds around during the day though.

Currently 16.9 high of 23.1c today.
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

All about them Cowboys !!! 🤠 🤠
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

John wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 3:38 pm We are going to pay for all this hot and dry weather probably a very wet late fall early winter like last year
Will Sumas lake return John asking for a friend thinking of purchasing lake front property. :D :shifty:
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Isn't this the guy that over exaggerates :? :roll:
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Roberts Creeker wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 8:27 pm ...Perhaps getting an edge of the massive heat dome building... I felt a surprisingly warm breeze when I was outside this evening. Beautiful sky tonight but my camera was outside so no pictures of it. Lots of wispy clouds around during the day though.

Currently 16.9 high of 23.1c today.
:thumbup: models seem to be hinting @ half a heat warning for Ms. Crankuptheheatcreeks. It's currently 19c @ the pond in south Sardis with some high clouds around.
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 8:53 pm Isn't this the guy that over exaggerates :? :roll:
No bro he's very accurate
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

AbbyJr wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 5:09 pm Can you quote the discussion on here? Please and thanks :thumbup:
Rubes posted the entire discussion below Jr. man. Don't forget to post your August stats. :thumbup: :D
Last edited by SouthSardiswx on Tue Sep 06, 2022 10:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Weather101 wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 9:27 pm No bro he's very accurate
:thumbup: O..k. l think l know who it is l won't mention the Twitter handle. Reached a high of 27c @ the pond in south Sardis today.
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

:o Wow! I thought Agassiz was bad for that this is absolutely insane. :crazy:
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/ne ... in-alberta
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

AbbyJr wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 5:09 pm Can you quote the discussion on here? Please and thanks :thumbup:
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 418 PM PDT Tue Sep 6 2022/

SYNOPSIS...Weak upper level trough will move through western
Washington on Wednesday. Low level flow turning offshore Thursday
night and remaining offshore through Saturday with near record
high temperatures especially Saturday. Ridge shifting east Sunday
with a weak upper level trough approaching Monday.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A ridge passing through
western WA today is bringing dry and mild conditions -
temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s. Up in the Cascades, the air
mass is very dry and unstable with critical fire weather
conditions met - a Red Flag Warning remains in effect through this
evening.

A trough and a dry front will cross the region on Wednesday with
onshore flow increasing. This will bring slightly cooler
conditions with higher RHs (and thus lower fire weather danger
threats). Low level stratus clouds will likely affect the coast
but the interior should remain clear. Onshore flow will continue
through Thursday with dry/northerly flow aloft.

A strong ridge builds offshore on Friday with a thermal trough
extending north through the WA coast. This pattern gives us a
strong offshore flow pattern with hot, dry and windy conditions -
a critical fire weather pattern setup as fuels remain dry. Highs
on Friday will reach the upper 70s to mid 80s with low RHs of
20-35 percent for most lowland areas away from the water. Winds
will be gusty N/NE 15 to 25 mph, especially during the afternoon
and evening hours. 33

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...Critical fire weather
conditions continue through the weekend with hot, dry and windy
weather on Saturday. The fire danger threat will remain elevated
for both the mountains and lowlands. Temps on Saturday will be in
the 80s to low 90s. However, morning lows (both Sat morning and
overnight Sat night) will be cool and in the 50s - providing
relief from the heat.

The thermal trough shifts inland and east of the Cascades on
Sunday with onshore flow increasing. This results in one more warm
day in the interior with highs in the 80s. The coast will be
cooler and in the 70s. The air mass will be dry and unstable up in
the Cascades where the fire weather threat will remain elevated.


A trough and onshore flow will bring cloudier and cooler
conditions overall as we move toward Monday. Models are picking up
on some mid level moisture but QPF looks light with high-based
showers (if they form). There`s some disagreement on Tuesday -
lingering trough or weak ridging - with the forecast leaning
toward climo for now. 33

AVIATION...An upper ridge across the area today with an upper
trough sliding north of the area on Wednesday for southwest/west
flow aloft. VFR through tonight for most. Potential for MVFR/IFR
cigs along the coast. Winds mainly west/northwest, easing a bit
tonight, increasing Wednesday late morning.

KSEA...VFR. North to northeast wind. JD

MARINE...Onshore flow with high pressure over the area. A weak
weather system will dissipate over the offshore waters Wednesday.
Small Craft Advisory northerly winds for the Coastal Waters into
early Thursday, and possibly into later week. Winds will transition
more northerly on Thursday and offshore Friday and Saturday. Small
Craft Advisory west winds for the central and eastern Strait of Juan
de Fuca this evening as well as Wednesday evening. Offshore winds
will taper off Sunday for lighter flow. The seas of 4 to 6 feet
through Wednesday will build to 8 to 10 feet Wednesday night and
Thursday and subsiding waves later week. JD

FIRE WEATHER...High pressure centered across western Washington
will maintain dry and unstable conditions in the Cascades. Red flag
warning remains through the evening with Haines 6 and low RH with
daytime humidities likely bottoming out in the 20-25 percent range.

An upper level ridge will build offshore Thursday with the ridge
moving over the area by Saturday. Expect to see dry and breezy
conditions across the area with offshore flow developing. With these
breezy winds and low relative humidity values, expect to see
critical fire weather conditions develop. As a result, a fire
weather watch has been issued for winds to 15 mph (locally gustier)
and relative humidities down to 20-25% for nearly all of the area.
Warm and dry conditions may linger into the interior into Sunday,
but with easing and eventually onshore winds, expect that the
critical fire weather conditions should come to an end for most. The
notable exception is the Cascades where where dry and unstable
(Haines 6) conditions will continues as the thermal trough pushes
eastward across the crest. Cullen

HYDROLOGY...The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the
start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated as needed.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

I hope that doesn't happen. I have a horse going to Pender Island. I've had horses for 40 years and I've just sold my last one. Hay was $500/ton last year which was up from $400 the year before and this year it's $750 - $800/ton. :shock: :shock: I've found some cheaper stuff and it looks really nice. He's delivering it October 1 if the weather is decent. Any guesses for that time period yet? I need a dry day.
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 9:02 pm :thumbup: models seem to be hinting @ half a heat warning for Ms. Crankuptheheatcreeks. It's currently 19c @ the pond in south Sardis with some high clouds around.
Half a heat warning will probably be translated by EC into a full warning and we'll all be running around in winter coats. I nearly put a jacket on today but managed to get by with just a vest. Fall is here!
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 9:42 pm :o Wow! I thought Agassiz was bad for that this is absolutely insane. :crazy:
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/ne ... in-alberta
Interesting read, I've never heard of a heat burst, thanks for posting. :clap: :clap:
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (24).png
00z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (25).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (26).png
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

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20220907095428-dc5ce0daafcf3865aff046ef91325bd457c7786f.png
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