December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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AbbyJr
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

AbbyJr wrote: Thu Dec 03, 2020 10:03 am -
"How can you in good conscience charge money for this garbage? All you do is spit out models as your forecast. When they say cold, you say cold, and vice versa. This is not meteorology, which requires some skill past just reporting what the models show. Here’s this from yesterday!"

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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

wetcoast91 wrote: Thu Dec 03, 2020 9:35 am Model noise in the 13-15 day range but looks like the models keep the quasistationary ridge along the west coast in the believable range. You expect the colder values depicted in the mid-range to turn really mild as we edge on the southern storm track.



Neutral = active
Do you consider the end of the line to still be neutral? It’s approaching -2 but I honestly don’t know if that’s significant.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

PortKells wrote: Thu Dec 03, 2020 10:38 am Do you consider the end of the line to still be neutral? It’s approaching -2 but I honestly don’t know if that’s significant.
Its always -2 to -4 towards the 13-15 day range. 5 days ago...models indicated a stark drop to -2 by Dec 10. Partly due to the poorer resolution in clown range and overdoing cold airmasses over the rockys.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

wetcoast91 wrote: Thu Dec 03, 2020 11:01 am Its always -2 to -4 towards the 13-15 day range. 5 days ago...models indicated a stark drop to -2 by Dec 10. Partly due to the poorer resolution in clown range and overdoing cold airmasses over the rockys.
Thanks. So you think we’re waiting until January at the earliest?
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

PortKells wrote: Thu Dec 03, 2020 11:03 am Thanks. So you think we’re waiting until January at the earliest?
Pretty much.

Do not see a -AO and -PNA in the next 3 weeks. Storm track aimed towards us or due north with amplified ridging between wet periods. PV remains near the poles/Hudson. There is a very cold pool of air building near the poles.

SSW looks like a sure bet for late Dec. Do we see that align with a -PNA?
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Antares »

We don't need a -PNA for snowfall though...right?
It always snows in December in the Kootenays :clap:
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Antares wrote: Thu Dec 03, 2020 12:04 pm We don't need a -PNA for snowfall though...right?
You need cold for snow and I'm not sure how you plan to get cold without at least a NW flow, which would need a -PNA in our regions.

I would say no snow without a -PNA.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Antares »

Well luckily, that other guy above is wrong about no -PNA showing up soon:
Image

:lol:
It always snows in December in the Kootenays :clap:
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Antares »

Here's an interesting graphic. December 2008 does not appear to be negative at all; it's either slightly positive or just neutral.
Image
It always snows in December in the Kootenays :clap:
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Antares wrote: Thu Dec 03, 2020 12:45 pm Here's an interesting graphic. December 2008 does not appear to be negative at all; it's either slightly positive or just neutral.
Image
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... scii.tablr
It was near +1.3 in Nov and -1.41 in Dec 2008. -1.41 may not seem impressive but that is a monthly average with what was a major +PNA to start off the month.

Major regionwide arctic blasts are tied to a -PNA. Neutral PNA can deliver some cool and wet weather but you are getting nowhere with a +PNA and +AO.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Antares wrote: Thu Dec 03, 2020 12:45 pm Here's an interesting graphic. December 2008 does not appear to be negative at all; it's either slightly positive or just neutral.
Image
Looking at that graphic, parts of 2008 was a +PNA but other parts was a -PNA. December was definitely a -PNA for the duration of the cold and snowy pattern.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

ECMWF weeklies = 1999/00

1950 if you do a quick glance. :roll:
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

wetcoast91 wrote: Thu Dec 03, 2020 1:24 pm https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... scii.tablr
It was near +1.3 in Nov and -1.41 in Dec 2008. -1.41 may not seem impressive but that is a monthly average with what was a major +PNA to start off the month.

Major regionwide arctic blasts are tied to a -PNA. Neutral PNA can deliver some cool and wet weather but you are getting nowhere with a +PNA and +AO.
Need to really tank that PNA to see a classic blast with arctic air coming down the pipe from the Yukon into the interior.

Too much -EPO without a low PNA value generally leads to chilly dry backdoor blasts. Those can be top tier for Oregon but nothing special for us further north.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

wetcoast91 wrote: Thu Dec 03, 2020 1:32 pm ECMWF weeklies = 1999/00

1950 if you do a quick glance. :roll:
What? The snowfall charts on the weeklies are not anything close to 99/2000 and its 2 cm of snow.
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