August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Leighbugs
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Leighbugs »

Anyone remember that crazy August windstorm several years back? I remember how wild that was. All the fully leafed out trees fallen everywhere. I recall it was pretty bad and I had no power for 2 days so I had to haul all of my perishable food in boxes to the in-laws house.

August can be so unpredictable. Will summer end? Will it rain for the PNE or will there be a heat wave? A rainstorm? A windstorm? Summer minutes feel like they are ticking down but then I remember last year and how it was in the 20s until mid October. :think:
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Yup that windstorm was crazy. Never seen anything like it. Trees all over Langley completely knocked over.. roots sticking up/ out. Mostly smaller to medium sized trees..but lots of them. The extreme weather events seem to be more common. Maybe this is the winter we get extreme snow? :clap: yessssss
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (15).png
00z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (16).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (17).png
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

20230824134415-2ae06c903b6650969a618e7032791061794067df.png
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

5c and cloudy this morning. The Similkameeeens Snows are close buttees..
:shock:
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Low of 10.8°C here. That is actually my coolest reading since June, I believe.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Thu Aug 24, 2023 9:49 am Low of 10.8°C here. That is actually my coolest reading since June, I believe.
Have to love the lower sun angles :think:
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Leighbugs wrote: Thu Aug 24, 2023 2:40 am Anyone remember that crazy August windstorm several years back? I remember how wild that was. All the fully leafed out trees fallen everywhere. I recall it was pretty bad and I had no power for 2 days so I had to haul all of my perishable food in boxes to the in-laws house.

August can be so unpredictable. Will summer end? Will it rain for the PNE or will there be a heat wave? A rainstorm? A windstorm? Summer minutes feel like they are ticking down but then I remember last year and how it was in the 20s until mid October. :think:
It was strange. It came in the middle of a dry and torchy summer, yet it was more like a blustery late October storm. Then back to dry and torchy, IIRC. But it least it gave the trees some relief from the drought stress.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Thu Aug 24, 2023 11:13 am It was strange. It came in the middle of a dry and torchy summer, yet it was more like a blustery late October storm. Then back to dry and torchy, IIRC. But it least it gave the trees some relief from the drought stress.
That storm was very quick hitting here. Didn't last long but most of Abbotsford lost power. We had our power off for about 5 hours.

Max wind gust in Abbotsford was 95 km/h, which isn't record breaking at all. But the fact the storm hit during the summer when the trees still had all of their foliage and we were in a drought, the damage was a lot more extensive.

It's rare to get big windstorms here during the summer. I imagine the October 1962 storm where winds in Abbotsford gusted to 145 km/h, would have done damage beyond any comprehension given that there is still often at least some foliage on the trees in October. Much more so than November and December when our windstorms usually hit.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

The GEM continues to be the cold outlier. It's rather strange to see the GFS more in line with the Euro. :? :think:

ecmwf-deterministic-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-2878400.png
gfs-deterministic-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-2878400.png
gem-all-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-2878400.png
nbm-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-2896400.png
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

AbbyJr wrote: Thu Aug 24, 2023 12:17 pm The GEM continues to be the cold outlier. It's rather strange to see the GFS more in line with the Euro. :? :think:


ecmwf-deterministic-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-2878400.png

gfs-deterministic-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-2878400.png

gem-all-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-2878400.png

nbm-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-2896400.png
Let’s go with the gem. The heat is getting old.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

John wrote: Thu Aug 24, 2023 4:07 pm Let’s go with the gem. The heat is getting old.
My money is on the GFS and Euro.

Like it or not, when those two agree on something, it almost always comes to pass. If both of those concur through tomorrow, it’s basically a lock.
Last edited by Rubus_Leucodermis on Thu Aug 24, 2023 10:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

AbbyJr wrote: Thu Aug 24, 2023 12:12 pm That storm was very quick hitting here. Didn't last long but most of Abbotsford lost power. We had our power off for about 5 hours.

Max wind gust in Abbotsford was 95 km/h, which isn't record breaking at all. But the fact the storm hit during the summer when the trees still had all of their foliage and we were in a drought, the damage was a lot more extensive.

It's rare to get big windstorms here during the summer. I imagine the October 1962 storm where winds in Abbotsford gusted to 145 km/h, would have done damage beyond any comprehension given that there is still often at least some foliage on the trees in October. Much more so than November and December when our windstorms usually hit.
I was on Bainbridge Island at the time. It was an all-day rain and wind event there. Pretty sure I got at least 30 mm from it.

It is the only August windstorm I remember.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Encouraging.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-or_wa-total_precip_inch-3418400.png
ecmwf-ensemble-CYVR-indiv_qpf-2900000.png
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It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

It’s also showing up on the GFS.
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-or_wa-total_precip_inch-3569600.png
gfs-ensemble-all-CYVR-indiv_qpf-2900000.png
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It's called clown range for a reason.
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