January 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[Monty]

Why are some of you calling this Wed/Thurs's possible snowfall an overrunning event? Isn't the arctic air long gone? Don't see any reload of arctic air , just the usual borderline temps.

Pretty much all of our snow is essentially over running. But as it stands now it does seem likely that we see a strong surge of cold east winds ahead of the warm front Wednesday

[Monty]

This current shower here is mostly snow with some slushy accumulation. The mid and upper levels are cooling pretty well now

[PortKells]

Seems to be the case. If you look at all the old photos of people skating on Fry's Corner in Surrey that could only happen with flooding followed by cold.. Could just be that these events fall at the right time of year that they seem linked and it is only a timing thing.

Yes, thinking about some of our recent cold snaps that didn't follow a stratospheric warming event. We have December 2021. We had January 2020, following a couple weeks of Alaskan vortex leading to heavy rains here. We had December 2016, following a highly active and wet autumn period that was until this year the wettest I had experienced. You could throw February 2017 in there as well, although the period that led to it was very mild rains in the second half of january and somewhat brief.

Interestingly these were all highly active periods that included arctic air but also plenty of moisture available to give us snow. When I think about SSW led events, I think of February 2019, a very dry winter that gave us a very dry arctic blast with a suppressed jet. (Eff Seattle) February 2018, same thing although we did end up scoring at the tail end of those events.

I know there's no exact science to this and always exceptions but I do think there's a connection there.

[South Island]

This current shower here is mostly snow with some slushy accumulation. The mid and upper levels are cooling pretty well now

Snowing in Victoria now as well…big wet snow flakes!

Edit: turned to very light rain now but that shower dropped the temperature from 5C to 2C.

[Forrest Gump]

Overrunning does not have to involve arctic air, merely air that is below freezing. Models indicate there will be outflow from the interior that, while not involving arctic air, will still be cold enough.

Ok, thanks, that is what I presumed ,but I've never heard anyone use the term before except with arctic air in place. Like Monty said, around here you could pretty well call most of the snowfalls overrunning. Then maybe the term classic overrunning or major overrunning event is best suiited with arctic air.

[AbbyJr]

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 35846?s=20

[Typeing3]

Wow!
https://mobile.twitter.com/kcprinters/s ... 8440581120

[Hound]

Found out what Houndsie does for fun.


https://youtube.com/shorts/jflXUguoKtU?feature=share

Yes actually I would do that.

[Hound]

Seems to be the case. If you look at all the old photos of people skating on Fry's Corner in Surrey that could only happen with flooding followed by cold.. Could just be that these events fall at the right time of year that they seem linked and it is only a timing thing.

I always wondered that as well. I asked my Grandfather who grew up here about it and he said that the flatlands used to flood way more and way longer in the past. He said in the last 30 years they have built many pumping stations and improved the area so it doesn't flood anymore and when it does it drains off pretty quick. So that might also be part of the reason in terms of the amount of time between say an AR event to a Freeze event. The water just stayed longer on the farmland than now.

[Hound]

Current: +3.7
DP: +1
Light winds/Cloudy

*Snow cover got pretty decimated last night. Grass now showing in many areas.

[Bonovox]

Moderate mixed rain and snow.

Temp: 3.8C
Dew point: 2.0C

[Pomoman]

Mixed rain and snow up here now.
Sloppy glory. (Also name of my next ‘film’)

[Hawk]

Current: +3.7
DP: +1
Light winds/Cloudy

*Snow cover got pretty decimated last night. Grass now showing in many areas.

Same on HawksHill

[Brentzky]

Just had a brief hail storm in South Surrey. Now mixed with what appears to be huge snow/ice crystals of some sort, almost loonie sized. Still 5C according to my car.

[Hawk]

Moderate mixed rain and snow.

Temp: 3.8C
Dew point: 2.0C