Winter 2019-20 Forecasts and Discussions

[John]

That’s some incredible Sh*t but i didn’t believe in analogs

[Canada Goose]

Did someone say ANALOG!

And how does that compare against other years being discussed, you ask?

Yep, climate doesn't work like this. Wait and see...

[Hawk]

Same guy just predicted a dry spell lasting through most of November for SW BC. If he's right that really sucks for the start of the ski season cuz it's pretty much a guarantee that if there is a 3 week or so dry spell that it will be replaced by an atmospheric river/pineapple express type pattern. It usually happens that way at this time of year following extended ridging.

Well he is pretty bang on with dry November...wow

[Monty]

Yep, climate doesn't work like this. Wait and see...

So you don’t think we’re going to see -20s on the coast this winter?

[Canada Goose]

So you don’t think we’re going to see -20s on the coast this winter?

I don't think anything about seasonal forecast. It's way too complicated.

What I mean is that we can have a very dry and mild November, then a very dry and mild winter or a very wet and mild winter or a very wet and cold winter or a very dry and cold winter.

It's unlikely that we have this pattern all winter, so wait to see...

[Monty]

I don't think anything about seasonal forecast. It's way too complicated.

What I mean is that we can have a very dry and mild November, then a very dry and mild winter or a very wet and mild winter or a very wet and cold winter or a very dry and cold winter.

It's unlikely that we have this pattern all winter, so wait to see...

It’s fun to prognosticate.
Fun fact. I think the last -20C on the south coast was 2008

[Typeing3]

It’s fun to prognosticate.
Fun fact. I think the last -20C on the south coast was 2008

Nanaimo?

[Monty]

Nanaimo?

Yes sir. Their data is a bit sketchy that month, unfortunately, but it seems plausible looking at the hourly obs.

[Canada Goose]

Nanaimo?

https://climat.meteo.gc.ca/climate_data ... imeframe=2

[Glacier]

December 2008 was the last time Kelowna was -30. Also, it was the EARLIEST ever to hit -30, reaching that mark on the 20th!

https://climat.meteo.gc.ca/climate_data ... &Year=2008

Other FACTS from Dec 2008:

-20.0C in:
NANAIMO
KITIMAT
OKANAGAN CENTRE
BILLINGS
KASLO
SOUTH SLOCAN
WARFIELD

-21.0C in:
OSOYOOS
PEACHLAND

-25.5C in:
NASS CAMP
WHISTLER ROUNDHOUSE
WHISTLER MOUNTAIN HIGH LEVEL
VERNON

-30 to -35C in:
FORT ST JAMES
MERRITT
SMITHERS
PRINCE GEORGE
CRANBROOK

Coldest spots:

PUNTZI MOUNTAIN (AUT) = -43
GERMANSEN LANDING = -42.9 [Weather station has since closed]
HORSEFLY LAKE GRUHS LAKE = -41
100 MILE HOUSE 6NE = -41
LUNCH LAKE = -40.5 [Weather station has since closed]
CHETWYND A = -40.5
SPOKIN LAKE 4E = -40

[Catnip]

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/ne ... ow-outlook

5D6437A7-43B6-4979-9C71-4F6F42AFDDE4.jpeg

[SouthSardiswx]

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/ne ... ow-outlook

5D6437A7-43B6-4979-9C71-4F6F42AFDDE4.jpeg

CKNW mentioned this morning looks like a good dart board to me.