Winter 2019-20 Forecasts and Discussions

[Canada Goose]

From Brett Anderson:

I will be finalizing the winter outlook early next week. I will admit that this year's winter forecast will be especially challenging as we do not have a strong ENSO signal and the analogs that we came up with are all over the place. For instance, one method that I like to use ended up with a total of four analog years. Unfortunately, when I looked at each of those years, two of the analogs had a solution that was almost completely opposite of the other two analogs. Averaging them all out is not going to help in this case, so I basically threw out that method for this winter's outlook.

Some things that I will be considering are: How strong will the PDO be? What type of influence will the lack of sea ice in the Arctic have? The Bering Sea has been well above normal in terms of water temperatures this year. Early snow cover across the Canadian Prairies. Snow growth in Eurasia this month. Sea surface temperatures off the Northeast U.S. and Atlantic Canada. The QBO phase and of course the weak ENSO. The long range seasonal forecast models have not been all that consistent either. Hopefully, the early October updates that will be out in a couple days will show some consistency and good consensus.

[AbbyJr]

From Brett Anderson:

Every meteorologists nightmare.

[SouthSardiswx]

Every meteorologists nightmare.

I can only guess his outlook as well cold east, warm and wet west. What a complete can of nonsense these guy's are.

[SouthSardiswx]

Warm west/cold east....so unexpected!

Accualway's wrong.

[SouthSardiswx]

ah, Joe Bastardi (or his legacy) at it again...

Pull handle to flush.

[Canada Goose]

Lack of strong forecast signals for this upcoming winter means confidence for this outlook is lower than usual. Based on this, I may decide to update this forecast later in November.

British Columbia

Rather mild winter is anticipated as the bulk of Arctic intrusions will be delivered through central Canada. Places such as Vancouver, Victoria, Kamloops and Prince George should also be drier and have more sunshine than usual. The overall pattern will likely favor lower snowfall, which could potentially increase the potential for late-spring and summer drought next year. The main storm track will likely bring the bulk of rain and snowfall events to northwestern British Columbia this winter.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- ... ook/602489

[SouthSardiswx]

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- ... ook/602489

Another rubbish prediction by an inaccurate website fake news.

[AbbyJr]

Another rubbish prediction by an inaccurate website fake news.

fakenews.gif

[SouthSardiswx]

fakenews.gif

[Coquitlam79]

Same guy just predicted a dry spell lasting through most of November for SW BC. If he's right that really sucks for the start of the ski season cuz it's pretty much a guarantee that if there is a 3 week or so dry spell that it will be replaced by an atmospheric river/pineapple express type pattern. It usually happens that way at this time of year following extended ridging.

[Typeing3]

Posting this in here so it doesn't get lost in the other thread.

January stats for those three enso neutral analogues....

1947
Vancouver Snowfall: 35.6cm
Vancouver Mean temp: 0.5C
New Westminster Snowfall: 34.7cm
New Westminster Mean temp: 0.4C
Abbotsford Snowfall: 23.0cm
Abbotsford Mean temp: -0.4C
Shawnigan Lake Snowfall: 70.2cm
Shawnigan Lake Mean temp: 0.4C

1951
Vancouver Snowfall: 26.0cm
Vancouver Mean temp: 2.5C
New Westminster Snowfall: 69.8cm
New Westminster Mean temp: 1.4C
Abbotsford Snowfall: 19.2cm
Abbotsford Mean temp: 1.6C
Shawnigan Lake Snowfall: 80.0cm
Shawnigan Lake Mean temp: 1.2C

1957
Vancouver Snowfall: 35.6cm
Vancouver Mean temp: -1.6C
New Westminster Snowfall: 48.8cm
New Westminster Mean temp: -2.1C
Abbotsford Snowfall: 51.1cm
Abbotsford Mean temp: -3.2C
Shawnigan Lake Snowfall: 42.9cm
Shawnigan Lake Mean temp: -1.7C

Analogue Average
Vancouver Snowfall: 32.4cm
Vancouver Mean temp: 0.5C
New Westminster Snowfall: 51.1cm
New Westminster Mean temp: -0.1C
Abbotsford Snowfall: 31.1cm
Abbotsford Mean temp: -0.7C
Shawnigan Lake Snowfall: 64.3cm
Shawnigan Lake Mean temp: 0.0C

[Abby_wx]

I like the 1957 one, the rest seem a bit "meh", at least out here. Good for areas further west mainly.

[Typeing3]

I like the 1957 one, the rest seem a bit "meh", at least out here. Good for areas further west mainly.

Considering how bad recent Januaries have been, it probably doesn't seem like a lot...but the average of all three would still result in the coldest and snowiest Jan regionally since 1993.

[Glacier]

Did someone say ANALOG!

BAM!

kamlooopsanalog.png

And how does that compare against other years being discussed, you ask?

Here you go:

kamlooopsanalog2.png

kamlooopsanalog4.png

kamlooopsanalog5.png

[John]

Did someone say ANALOG!

BAM!

kamlooopsanalog.png

And how does that compare against other years being discussed, you ask?

Here you go:

kamlooopsanalog2.png
kamlooopsanalog4.png
kamlooopsanalog5.png