November 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

1943 - 59.9mm
1952 - 33.3mm
1976 - 48.4mm
1993 - 63.1mm

Continued...
1922 - 66.8mm
1936 - 46.7mm

[Catnip]

Better list... download the excel file to make is easier.

All the years under 100mm at YVR from 1937 to 2013

1952 33.3
1976 48.3
1943 59.9
1993 63.1
1956 70.4
2000 74
1985 74.5
1957 76.2
1938 77
1940 78.7
1979 82.7
1970 87.9
1947 92.5
1969 94.5
1950 91.2

[Typeing3]

Continued for old data again (1898-1937):

1922 - 66.8mm
1929 - 64.5mm
1930 - 76.2mm
1936 - 46.7mm

[Catnip]

There must be a couple of good years in there... I hope?

[Typeing3]

There must be a couple of good years in there... I hope?

It's about 50/50. To find the best analogues out of that bunch we'd need to check the ENSO and solar state for each of those years.

Adding onto that list...Going even further back (had to use the old New West station), I also found November 1880 with 66.5mm.

[Roberts Creeker]

It's about 50/50. To find the best analogues out of that bunch we'd need to check the ENSO and solar state for each of those years.

Adding onto that list...Going even further back (had to use the old New West station), I also found November 1880 with 66.5mm.

Wow! 1880, that is going back.

[Monty]

Looking at the 12 coldest October’s at Shawnigan Lake. Then narrowing it down to the 6 driest November’s we have.

1916-17
1930-31
1946-47
1950-51
1956-57
1972-73

[John]

The neat thing in weather is that analogs mean nothing at all so anything is possible don’t no why people look at them as an prediction measure

[Catnip]

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/119 ... 89313?s=21

[Coquitlam79]

CPC back to dry and warm signal..for 6-10 day and 8-14 day for basically most of the West including Pac NW. Could see that coming, the rain in the models was a mirage. There wont be an early start to the ski season this year that's for sure. On the flip side it will be a rare late season hikers dream. Little to no rain, little to no snow, maybe some inversions and not too cold.

[Typeing3]

Looking at the 12 coldest October’s at Shawnigan Lake. Then narrowing it down to the 6 driest November’s we have.

1916-17
1930-31
1946-47
1950-51
1956-57
1972-73

1916-17: La Nina/Low increasing solar
1930-31: El Nino/Low decreasing solar
1946-47: Neutral/Moderate increasing solar
1950-51: Neutral/Moderate decreasing solar
1956-57: Neutral/High increasing solar
1972-73: El Nino/Low decreasing solar

[Typeing3]

12z GFS showing only 10-30mm thru Nov 20th!

[Coquitlam79]

EIeVijtWsAIcy3B.jpeg.jpg

This is from Tyler Hamilton's twitter. I think that 13 day dry spell was assuming we would get rain on Thursday. However it is looking like maybe won't happen until late Friday or even Saturday so the dry spell will be especially impressive. And to think this pattern was really in place since the day after the election (Oct 22) and the only rain we have seen is about 30 minutes of rain on the Friday Oct 25th the day of the windstorm. This is way more than a run of the mill dry spell , it is a true drought. Thank goodness for the wet September!! And for that one week of rain we had in October or else we'd be screwed.

[Typeing3]

1916-17: La Nina/Low increasing solar
1930-31: El Nino/Low decreasing solar
1946-47: Neutral/Moderate increasing solar
1950-51: Neutral/Moderate decreasing solar
1956-57: Neutral/High increasing solar
1972-73: El Nino/Low decreasing solar

Continuing with this...I think 1970-71 could be added to the list. 1970 is in the top 10 coldest October list followed by only 100.6mm of precip (87.9mm of rain 9.9cm of snow) in Nov.

[Forrest Gump]

Continuing with this...I think 1970-71 could be added to the list. 1970 is in the top 10 coldest October list followed by only 100.6mm of precip (87.9mm of rain 9.9cm of snow) in Nov.

If my memory serves me right that was a great winter with frozen ponds and lots of snow.