November 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[Radar]

I remember hearing moaning and winter cancels toward the end of Nov that year.

I remember 2008 having substantial cold water off the coast. Large areas of cold water seem to benefit us in snowfall amounts. Currently it seems we are much warmer.

[Coquitlam79]

I remember 2008 having substantial cold water off the coast. Large areas of cold water seem to benefit us in snowfall amounts. Currently it seems we are much warmer.

Ya that's right. Someone said 2014 and it seems dead on. 2014 had a wet September, saw some decent rains in October than a big ridge /dry pattern in early to mid November. Sound familiar? 2014-2015 was the worst ski season of all time. Blob is back, Arctic ocean is warm, so expect either dry and foggy in a weak jet stream pattern that will buckle and pump up a big ridge pattern or expect a pineapple express at the times when the ridge breaks down. At least for the next few weeks. Models waaaaay drier for the next couple of weeks on the last few runs but they been all over the place lately in regards to precip and the ridge breaking down (or not).

[Forrest Gump]

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... 90240?s=21

"and abnormally ice-free waters in the Arctic". That certainly doesn't sound good.

[SouthSardiswx]

Well is it too soon to fork it.

[SouthSardiswx]

Ya that's right. Someone said 2014 and it seems dead on. 2014 had a wet September, saw some decent rains in October than a big ridge /dry pattern in early to mid November. Sound familiar? 2014-2015 was the worst ski season of all time. Blob is back, Arctic ocean is warm, so expect either dry and foggy in a weak jet stream pattern that will buckle and pump up a big ridge pattern or expect a pineapple express at the times when the ridge breaks down. At least for the next few weeks. Models waaaaay drier for the next couple of weeks on the last few runs but they been all over the place lately in regards to precip and the ridge breaking down (or not).

Thanks for the depressing write up C79.

[Monty]

0245B5FA-5E7B-4D85-BCCD-D1D8D6839FA0.jpeg

[SouthSardiswx]

thanks Mr. M.

[Hawk]

Ya that's right. Someone said 2014 and it seems dead on. 2014 had a wet September, saw some decent rains in October than a big ridge /dry pattern in early to mid November. Sound familiar? 2014-2015 was the worst ski season of all time. Blob is back, Arctic ocean is warm, so expect either dry and foggy in a weak jet stream pattern that will buckle and pump up a big ridge pattern or expect a pineapple express at the times when the ridge breaks down. At least for the next few weeks. Models waaaaay drier for the next couple of weeks on the last few runs but they been all over the place lately in regards to precip and the ridge breaking down (or not).

[Hawk]

The entire Northern hemisphere..almost..has higher then average SSTA. However, if looking at the trend, the coastal waters SSTA have been cooling over the past 20 days. A month ago the ocean coast was Red. Now its Blue. And looks like it will continue to cool just in time for December.
SEP 1 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anom ... 2.2019.gif

OCT 3 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anom ... 3.2019.gif

OCT 31 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anom ... 1.2019.gif

The trend is our friend butties. There will be a mass pool of cold off the coast soon. I hope..
Right Nito???

[Hawk]

Unless said Ridge is in the Northern dream bullseye..our weather sucks. Lets face the facts here buttees!! This ridge is great for summer..not winter.
Any offshore ridge in winter me no like.


Meantime east is scoring like a Pasternakian machine.

[Catnip]

48DE367E-F160-448C-8B43-CEB0645A9D4C.jpeg

[Monty]

Might have to start looking at dry November’s for analogues. Nothing appreciably wet showing up through almost mid month.

[Typeing3]

12z basically bone dry for the next 10 days.

[Catnip]

Might have to start looking at dry November’s for analogues. Nothing appreciably wet showing up through almost mid month.

1943 - 59.9mm
1952 - 33.3mm
1976 - 48.4mm
1993 - 63.1mm

[Monty]

1943 - 59.9mm
1952 - 33.3mm
1976 - 48.4mm
1993 - 63.1mm

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