October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

[SouthSardiswx]

Cat monster, don't over indulge on Halloween candy tomorrow night. it's a chilly 7c @ the pond in south Sardis with light rain.

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[Roberts Creeker]

I see the war for the coveted 5th Annual Old Geezers cup has begun.

Currently a balmy 9.7c in Sechelt and no rain, after another day of about 40 mm.

[Roberts Creeker]

Happy Halloween!

[SouthSardiswx]

I see the war for the coveted 5th Annual Old Geezers cup has begun.

Currently a balmy 9.7c in Sechelt and no rain, after another day of about 40 mm.

Indeed it has by all means throw your webbed feet in the snowfall pool contest. Ms. Don'tstoprainingcreeks.

[Bonovox]

00Z Euro.

[SouthSardiswx]

Happy Halloween to all my scary forum friends.

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[Bonovox]

Summary of the 00Z GFS, GEM and Euro.

[Hound]

Whoever named that road must have been a winter weather fan… possibly an old relative of Hound’s.

[Typeing3]

Understandable Bones, if this was November 30th l would be a tad more optimistic Nov/85 started by Rememberance cooling off and just got progressively colder and snowier as the month went on.
Could that happen again it's tough to say at least it happened that one time in my life but that's a tough pattern to get like that on the south coast let alone November snowfalls.

There's certainly a quite a few fairly significant to very notable mid to late November cold and/or snowy spells in the period of record. 2010, 2006, 1996, 1993, 1985, 1977, 1975, etc, etc.

For early November the only significant ones I can think of off the top of my head would be 1911 or 1955. I'm sure there's a few others I've missed but there's not too many. In recent years, early Nov 2017 was decent I suppose.

[SouthSardiswx]

There's certainly a quite a few fairly significant to very notable mid to late November cold and/or snowy spells in the period of record. 2010, 2006, 1996, 1993, 1985, 1977, 1975, etc, etc.

For early November the only significant ones I can think of off the top of my head would be 1911 or 1955. I'm sure there's a few others I've missed but there's not too many. In recent years, early Nov 2017 was decent I suppose.

Agreed Tbrain, l suppose my memory recalls 85 being amazing as well as 06 of course we all know where that went in December 96. 06 was epic in its own right but wasn't 2017 a dry blast?
96 l was living in POCO just off of Shaughnessy and Wilson Ave. I recall just a week before we cooled off with some wet snow it was 16c.l guess l just remember November events being wet snowfalls.
Yes 2010 was decent come to think of it wasn't it around the last week of November American Thanksgiving l believe. Actual Arctic air for afew day's followed by a snowfall. l remember l was at work in Burnaby by Lougheed and Gaglardi Way and we received 12cm or so by the end of the work day.

[SouthSardiswx]

I should note 196.0mm for the month of October, l'm curious what Abby sr or Jr. man have for this weekend storm total and for the month.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

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00z ECMWF ensembles:

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00z GEM ensembles:

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[Typeing3]

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[Typeing3]

Agreed Tbrain, l suppose my memory recalls 85 being amazing as well as 06 of course we all know where that went in December 96. 06 was epic in its own right but wasn't 2017 a dry blast?
96 l was living in POCO just off of Shaughnessy and Wilson Ave. I recall just a week before we cooled off with some wet snow it was 16c.l guess l just remember November events being wet snowfalls.
Yes 2010 was decent come to think of it wasn't it around the last week of November American Thanksgiving l believe. Actual Arctic air for afew day's followed by a snowfall. l remember l was at work in Burnaby by Lougheed and Gaglardi Way and we received 12cm or so by the end of the work day.

I believe 850mb dropped as low as -17c at YVR during the Nov 2010 event... had the lowest Nov temps since 1985. Duration obviously wasn't nearly as long but 1985 was one of the most anomalous events on record in terms of extreme cold and duration.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

The GFS has been the first model to pick up on many of our recent arctic outflow events, so it really might be on to something here.

That said, it also totally underestimates how the mountains interfere with the ability of cold air to advect into this region from the interior, so add about 5ËšC to those forecasts of -8ËšC surface temperatures. Assuming, of course, that it materializes in the first place.