October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

[Typeing3]

I guess my point was that the media seems to associate the term with heavy rainfall events.

For sure. No arguments there. It's definitely presented as a doomsday scenario in the media.

[Typeing3]

A replay of 1996?

https://youtu.be/Ec-PxqGDkWY

1935 was even better for Metro Vancouver!

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

1935 was even better for Metro Vancouver!

How much fell then?

The snow got over a metre deep in Victoria in 1996; if 1935 got more than that it must have been totally insane.

[stuffradio]

12Z ECMWF

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-7304000.png

[Typeing3]

How much fell then?

The snow got over a metre deep in Victoria in 1996; if 1935 got more than that it must have been totally insane.

1996 was better for Victoria, but 1935 was for Metro Vancouver. About 50-70cm over a 24-36hr period.

Culminated with the worst ice storm in recorded history for our region. Estimates of about 100-200mm of ZR in the valley, about 25-50mm across Metro Vancouver.

Downtown Vancouver: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... &Year=1935
North Vancouver: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... imeframe=2
New Westminster: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... imeframe=2
Burquitlam: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... imeframe=2
Coquitlam Lake: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... imeframe=2
Mission: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... imeframe=2
Cultus Lake: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... imeframe=2
Agassiz: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... imeframe=2

[Bonovox]

That was the first winter with my then new to me Jeep. Boy did I have fun!

I was in grade 6.

I remember staying up all night the night before to watch The Weather Network and the red warning screen at every local forecast on the 0:10's.

[Roberts Creeker]

Bucketing down here has been most of the late afternoon. Have about 2.5 cm since it started this morning. I remember why I don't like the rain. I'm soaked! My jacket hasn't self healed its rainproofing over the summer. Going to have to do something about that soon!

[Storm]

Hey Michael, should I still have a word with your ?

F***ck this 🌧

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

That was the first winter with my then new to me Jeep. Boy did I have fun!

It was such a surreal set of storms. WeatherBell and Internet weather forums didn’t exist, but it was obvious that there was model disagreement, because Environment Canada was going with cold and some snow and the US NWS was going with pineapples. In the back of my mind I was thinking “what if we got a bit of both, wouldn’t it rival some of those historic snowstorms I read about that happened in the early days?” Little did I know!

I missed a lot of it, being in Portland for the holidays, but did catch the tail end on my return trip. Was living in the north end of Seattle at the time. There was a HUGE snow gradient: from zilch in Olympia to a little melty slush in Tacoma, to about a foot of snow (and more falling) in Downtown Seattle. North of Downtown Seattle the amounts quickly reached surreal levels. I can only imagine what it must have been like to experience it in Victoria first-hand.

Then the pineapples won. The rapid melting caused even more chaos than the deep accumulations did.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Up to 23.2 mm (and counting) for this event.

I see it didn’t take long for the anti-rain crowd to start complaining.

[Storm]

Up to 23.2 mm (and counting) for this event.

I see it didn’t take long for the anti-rain crowd to start complaining.

There's nothing to be exited about this. They (the rain starved) are going to get it in buckets.

[Bonovox]

There's nothing to be exited about this. They (the rain starved) are going to get it in buckets.

I’m loving it.

[Storm]

I’m loving it.

Not a good night for walk with the . Even my dog hates it.

[Canada Goose]

I'd say the term moreso refers to the meteorological/atmospheric setup rather than the precip amounts. In which case there can be a distinction between a "weak", "moderate", or "strong" AR. I believe some organization in the US already began categorizing ARs from 1 through 5, with variables depending on total rainfall amounts in a certain amount of time.

Catégories AR (Atmospheric River).jpg

[Typeing3]

Catégories AR (Atmospheric River).jpg

Yep, that's exactly the chart I had in mind actually. Don't remember where I first saw it.