October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

[SouthSardiswx]

Did you not invest in a amphibious vehicle?

Haha no the Sumas Lake ferry was out of service smart arse.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

models drying out, cold air gets here when moisture departs

Already some hinting at that in the models. Favoured parts of the PSCZ to our south might score some lowland snow in early November from post-frontal showers after the cold air moves in. By which time it will be clear and dry up here.

[SouthSardiswx]

Already some hinting at that in the models. Favoured parts of the PSCZ to our south might score some lowland snow in early November from post-frontal showers after the cold air moves in. By which time it will be clear and dry up here.

Oh how ironic bad memories of Feb/19 perhaps. l always worry that early cold spells means milder later in winter.
How can you tell l'm damaged from all the winters l've lived through here in southern B.C.

[Catnip]

There are a few twitter weather enthusiasts making a big deal about the next 2 AR's. 50-80mm is not a concern over a 48 hour period. 120-150mm over the span of a week isn't bad either.

120-150mm over 2 days? Potentially dangerous but no models are showing anything to say "FLOOD."

The term atmospheric river is used too liberally these days imo.

My idea of an Atmospheric River (or Pineapple Express as they used to be called) is a rainfall in excess of 100mm... closer to 150mm on/around the mountains in a 24-36 hr period.

[Antares]

18C here with an 18C dew point and drizzle.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

18C here with an 18C dew point and drizzle.

8.2°C with a DP of 7.7 and moderate rain at my home.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Oh how ironic bad memories of Feb/19 perhaps. l always worry that early cold spells means milder later in winter.
How can you tell l'm damaged from all the winters l've lived through here in southern B.C.

You've actually had some good snows on the shores of your pond in recent winters. If you want more, as Hawk says: .

[SouthSardiswx]

8.2°C with a DP of 7.7 and moderate rain at my home.

I was just going to let Ant b there know that's a normal wetcoast fall day.

[Typeing3]

The term atmospheric river is used too liberally these days imo.

My idea of an Atmospheric River (or Pineapple Express as they used to be called) is a rainfall in excess of 100mm... closer to 150mm on/around the mountains in a 24-36 hr period.

I'd say the term moreso refers to the meteorological/atmospheric setup rather than the precip amounts. In which case there can be a distinction between a "weak", "moderate", or "strong" AR. I believe some organization in the US already began categorizing ARs from 1 through 5, with variables depending on total rainfall amounts in a certain amount of time.

[SouthSardiswx]

I'd say the term moreso refers to the meteorological/atmospheric setup rather than the precip amounts. In which case there can be a distinction between a "weak", "moderate", or "strong" AR. I believe some organization in the US already began categorizing ARs from 1 through 5, with variables depending on total rainfall amounts in a certain amount of time.

So basically Tfloods AR got a bum rap last November and is now lumped into the category of extreme disaster ppl. will now Associate AR with massive flooding.

[Catnip]

I’d like an atmospheric river of snow this winter.

[Catnip]

I'd say the term moreso refers to the meteorological/atmospheric setup rather than the precip amounts. In which case there can be a distinction between a "weak", "moderate", or "strong" AR. I believe some organization in the US already began categorizing ARs from 1 through 5, with variables depending on total rainfall amounts in a certain amount of time.

I guess my point was that the media seems to associate the term with heavy rainfall events.

[SouthSardiswx]

I’d like an atmospheric river of snow this winter.

That would a ASS, atmospheric snow sytsem, and of course with our luck it would get wiped out by an AR.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I’d like an atmospheric river of snow this winter.

A replay of 1996?

https://youtu.be/Ec-PxqGDkWY

[Catnip]

A replay of 1996?

https://youtu.be/Ec-PxqGDkWY

That was the first winter with my then new to me Jeep. Boy did I have fun!