October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

[Coquitlam79]

GZ_PN_240_0000-1.gif

That big low and vortex over Hudson Bay Is now blocking this pattern and making it stuck. A couple weeks ago was the big low in the Bering sea (result of recurving west pacific typhoons) that was pumping up the ridge and now it's the Arctic low over Hudson Bay and the vortex that has everything stuck. Some models are even more extreme with the amplified pattern.

[Coquitlam79]

Considering how much snow was still on Baker back in May and June no it is really stunning how bare it looks.
And just the haze/smoke added an eerie look to it. I can't believe l'm still wearing shorts in early October 2012 redux for sure,
I'm thinking it'll come to an end next week.

I think the warmth will come to an end soon because the lowering sun angle and less mixing could mean Fog and inversions. Still gonna be bone dry. Back in 2002 (where it didn't really rain until the 1st week of November) that's exactly what happened too..

[SouthSardiswx]

That big low and vortex over Hudson Bay Is now blocking this pattern and making it stuck. A couple weeks ago was the big low in the Bering sea (result of recurving west pacific typhoons) that was pumping up the ridge and now it's the Arctic low over Hudson Bay and the vortex that has everything stuck. Some models are even more extreme with the amplified pattern.

This can't be good going forward Cman79, those are very difficult to dislodge and usually leads to an extreme vortex of Arctic air in the eastern portions of North America while we tend to get a mild SW El Nito pineapple flow for weeks on end.

[SouthSardiswx]

I think the warmth will come to an end soon because the lowering sun angle and less mixing could mean Fog and inversions. Still gonna be bone dry. Back in 2002 (where it didn't really rain until the 1st week of November) that's exactly what happened too..

Another interesting analysis Cman79, l've been wondering how long before we get socked in with fog over sunshine/haze.
Your correct the longer this goes on the chances increase for a fog fest eventually.

[Typeing3]

I think the warmth will come to an end soon because the lowering sun angle and less mixing could mean Fog and inversions. Still gonna be bone dry. Back in 2002 (where it didn't really rain until the 1st week of November) that's exactly what happened too..

Already beginning to happen to our south.
https://twitter.com/SeattleWXGuy/status ... 2891208704

[Typeing3]

2003 also. I do think when this pattern breaks is going to break in a big way.

Quick scan of the records back 50 years to 1970 as a refresher and it looks like September and/or October 1993, 1991, 1987, 1986, 1976, 1975, and 1974 were also quite dry.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (45).png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (46).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (47).png

[Typeing3]

20221006100243-6db224096c07e16675dffac603fa35f62a5defc7.png

[SouthSardiswx]

Quick scan of the records back 50 years to 1970 as a refresher and it looks like September and/or October 1993, 1991, 1987, 1986, 1976, 1975, and 1974 were also quite dry.

Some decent winters in there Thope. Definitely an October chill and 11c @ the pond in south Sardis.

[Glacier]

It hasn't rained and for awhile.

https://www.loc.gov/everyday-mysteries/ ... -and-dogs/

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

20221006100243-6db224096c07e16675dffac603fa35f62a5defc7.png

[Catnip]

That's in the Bella Bella region and they've had more rain than we've had in the last 3 months! At least some of our salmon streams around here are controlled by dams like Capilano and the Coquitlam rivers and they can always let a little more water out to help the fish spawn if it gets too low.

A good news story out of the Coquitlam River:

https://twitter.com/Kwikwetlem/status/1 ... 905oXPHqbg

[Catnip]

Already beginning to happen to our south.
https://twitter.com/SeattleWXGuy/status ... 2891208704

I love how his recent tweets are directed at VLAD...

#twitterwars

[Catnip]

6z.png

[Typeing3]

I love how his recent tweets are directed at VLAD...

#twitterwars

Yeah, I posted on that again yesterday evening.