September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

GFS 10 Day
gfs 10 day.png

Underwhelming. Want more.

[stuffradio]

Fwiw.....

Today's weeklies show above normal temps for all of Oct.

It then shows average temps for the first part of Nov.

#teamColdDecember

[Roberts Creeker]

12ZEuro isn't all that wet for Wednesday.

Euro Rain.png

It is actually dry after that.

Total precip for the next 10 days.
euro day 10.png

hmmmm, I'm getting between 3 mm and .3 of an inch depending on which model I check. That's not going to do anything but I guess better than nothing.

[Roberts Creeker]

Jupiter is super bright tonight, it's the closest it's been in 59 year. It's been pretty bright for a few weeks and will be for a few more but tonight is the closest. If you have binoculars or a telescope you can see four of its moons.

Look east, it's the brightest thing in the sky. https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/jupiter ... -1.6593512

[SouthSardiswx]

Jupiter is super bright tonight, it's the closest it's been in 59 year. It's been pretty bright for a few weeks and will be for a few more but tonight is the closest. If you have binoculars or a telescope you can see four of its moons.

Look east, it's the brightest thing in the sky. https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/jupiter ... -1.6593512

Yes l saw that on Global news Ms. Planetcreeks, just look for the brightest thing in the east.
It's currently 19c @ the pond in south Sardis and mostly clear.

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image.png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (1).png

12z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (2).png

[Roberts Creeker]

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image.png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (1).png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (2).png

Not looking like much rain on Wednesday in those.

[Typeing3]

Not looking like much rain on Wednesday in those.

Yeah, doesn't look too significant but could help to green up the grass further. Last rainfall helped a bit.

20220927053507-9410fb9bffa2166f565debc9c9a8d7bdb749d7fa.png

[Roberts Creeker]

Yeah, doesn't look too significant but could help to green up the grass further. Last rainfall helped a bit. 20220927053507-9410fb9bffa2166f565debc9c9a8d7bdb749d7fa.png

Yup, every little bit helps.

[Coquitlam79]

The trend in the models is drier now. We might barely get a drop tomorrow. Then godzilla the monster ridge is back looks like for most if not all of next week. I don't believe we'll get any real rain until after Thanksgiving. I think anything the models ahow before that will be a "mirage" on the models and we won't see anything. But the problem is we are now in a rather serious drought. Level 4 now for much of the South coast and other areas in the North. Not unprecedented at all for this time of year, as I've said in a previous post But still concerning for things like salmon streams and water levels. Metro Vancouver reservoir levels are lower now than they were this time in 2015 which was a major drought year (spring and first half of summer and also no snowpack). Although in 2015 there was a heavy rainfall event in late August and lots of rain in early September that year as well.

Screenshot_20220927-075347_Samsung Internet.jpg

BC Drought Levels 22-09-2022__1663866113182__w1280.png

[Catnip]

6z GFS Total Rainfall (or lack thereof) for the next 10 days

6zrain.png

[Catnip]

00z Euro total rainfall for the next 10 days.

00 euro rain.png

Although it does look like the 6z Euro added a few drops for Wednesday.

6zeurorain.png

[Catnip]

Hurricane Ian

Looks to hang out in the same area for at least 2 days!

Weds AM

12z weds.png

Fri AM

12z fri.png

ialrain.png

[Catnip]

outlook.jpg

[Glacier]

29.9C yesterday at Squamish, which is the hottest temperature recorded in the province in 16 days. BTW, Tatlayoko Lake was the coldest spot in BC yesterday at -0.5, but was still 28.0C by afternoon. Not bad when the coldest place in the province in late September is still 28 degrees.

bcextremes.png

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