August 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[SouthSardiswx]

That's absolutely insane the 2 back to back smoke fest summers Tsmoky.
I'll never forget how gloomy those day's were. 18 day's total over 2 summers was ridiculous however 26 day's over 3 summers was just insane.

[SouthSardiswx]

It's now pretty much dark at 8:30

Isn't it amazing Ms. Gettingdarkearlycreeks, that once we spring ahead in March we are so excited about extra light at 7:30p.m. but yet now in late August 8:30p.m. is getting dark too early now.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (12).png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (13).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (14).png

[Typeing3]

20220826101641-72fa7d6a71179db3dfc424ab273da5470b971510.png

[Typeing3]

That's absolutely insane the 2 back to back smoke fest summers Tsmoky.
I'll never forget how gloomy those day's were. 18 day's total over 2 summers was ridiculous however 26 day's over 3 summers was just insane.

Yeah it was pretty crazy, especially since it was back-to-back years.

Need to do a bit more digging/research on the topic (if its available) but from what I found, 1958 and 1967 were likely close to being comparable or perhaps even worse, smoke-wise, as per the reports. At least they didn't occur in back-to-back summers though.

1958 reports: https://forums.bcstorms.ca/viewtopic.php?f=201&t=1751

1967 reports: https://forums.bcstorms.ca/viewtopic.php?f=201&t=1761

[Weather101]

https://twitter.com/YVR__Weather/status ... BARWg&s=19

[SouthSardiswx]

Yeah it was pretty crazy, especially since it was back-to-back years.

Need to do a bit more digging/research on the topic (if its available) but from what I found, 1958 and 1967 were likely close to being comparable or perhaps even worse, smoke-wise, as per the reports. At least they didn't occur in back-to-back summers though.

Wow Tfire the 67 Sproat lake fire rings a bell we had relatives that owned cabins right on the lake we stayed there afew summers when l was quite young the Martin Mars water bombers were stationed there l remember. But l do recall my parents mentioning that the fire was threatening the cabins but l think they were o.k. in the end.
There must be a news story on the internet about that fire will do a search.

[Hawk]

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (12).png
00z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (13).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (14).png

Yup..looks like one more ridge with brief heat..then its all over as September brings about a transition to cooler/wet weather
Anything better than August 2022 is a victory

[Bonovox]

Umm, folks, I don't want to jinx anything, but this looks amazing.

[Weather101]

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... 6CZAA&s=19

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Umm, folks, I don't want to jinx anything, but this looks amazing.

Quack!

P.S. Don’t worry. I’m jinxing it in the contrary direction (i.e. in favour of rain) by leaving the area for much of Labour Day weekend.

[Glacier]

I'm really shocked at how warm Sisters Island is. A low ABOVE 20 yesterday with a high over 28. This is a very small island so small that it it's not even on Google maps.

By contrast, YVR, which is actually on land had extremes of 17.1 and 26.1 yesterday.

[Typeing3]

Umm, folks, I don't want to jinx anything, but this looks amazing.

This does too!

gfs_apcpn_nwus_64.png

[stuffradio]

The GEFS is much less dramatic but still ~20mm of rain for Abbotsford.

gfs-ensemble-all-CYXX-ens_box-1515200.png

ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-ens_box-1515200.png

[Weather101]

The GEFS is much less dramatic but still ~20mm of rain for Abbotsford.

gfs-ensemble-all-CYXX-ens_box-1515200.png
ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-ens_box-1515200.png

I highly doubt this happens