August 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

Next 15-16 days total precip on the ensembles

12z GEFS (GFS ensembles)

gfs-ens_apcpn_wus_64 (4).png

12z EPS (ECMWF ensembles)

eps_apcpn_wus_60 (3).png

12z GEPS (GEM ensembles)

gem-ens_apcpn_wus_64 (4).png

[Bonovox]

Throw this one out. As your buddy Trump would say...fake news

Not to wade into politics, but Trump is no buddy of mine. Just saying.

[Bonovox]

No 40’s in the forecast models… yet.

I long for plus 3c and rain.

[Typeing3]

I long for plus 3f and snow.

Better!

[Bonovox]

Better!

I will agree with you on that.

[Hawk]

Better!

There is lots of that weather to enjoy..if you are in the Similkameens in winter

[Hawk]

So if we get roasted all the way into the end of August with Ridge after Ridge who could have predicted a summer like this after that wet and Cool Spring we had?
I know that we often have very dry Summers but the chances this year are no better of that happening than any other year. Just our luck.

[Roberts Creeker]

Heat Warning for Sechelt too.

EC calling for 30 tomorrow and 29 Thursday. I hope this one underperforms and doesn't hang around.

[AbbyJr]

Two day heatwave begins tomorrow according to the 00Z RGEM:

Wednesday at 5:00 PM:

rgem-all-vancouverski-t2m_c-0780800.png

Thursday at 5:00 PM:

rgem-all-vancouverski-t2m_c-0867200.png

Yet another heatwave is possible next week according to the 12Z Euro:

Wednesday at 5:00 PM:

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-t2m_c-1385600.png

Thursday at 5:00 PM:

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-t2m_c-1472000.png

The GFS also agrees that the heat returns next week. Here is the 18Z for Abbotsford:

gfs-deterministic-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-0672800.png

There is also support for another heatwave next week on the National Blend of Models. Here is the 02Z for Abbotsford:

nbm-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-0701600.png

Note: From my experience, the National Blend of Models is usually conservative in the long range so to see it showing the low 30's 8 days out is significant. I expect it to trend warmer as we near the event, if the other models continue on the heatwave trend.

[Coquitlam79]

So if we get roasted all the way into the end of August with Ridge after Ridge who could have predicted a summer like this after that wet and Cool Spring we had?
I know that we often have very dry Summers but the chances this year are no better of that happening than any other year. Just our luck.

It's been the rule lately to have hot August's. August 2017 would have slayed the record if not for all the smoke It even stayed hot (and smoky) into early September that year. 5 of the hottest August's on record have been in the last 20 years. People often complain about our summers but they've gotten hotter and longer, even if we get a wet and cool start to summer we get the heat and drought on the back end. Just look at the glaciers how they've retreated even with high snowpack years lately, they're still melting at an unbelievable rate. I flew over the Mt Waddington area and I couldn't fathom how much the glaciers have retreated in that region since about 30 years ago. It looked like a completely different area.

[Weather101]

So mentally done with this heat

[SouthSardiswx]

It's been the rule lately to have hot August's. August 2017 would have slayed the record if not for all the smoke It even stayed hot (and smoky) into early September that year. 5 of the hottest August's on record have been in the last 20 years. People often complain about our summers but they've gotten hotter and longer, even if we get a wet and cool start to summer we get the heat and drought on the back end. Just look at the glaciers how they've retreated even with high snowpack years lately, they're still melting at an unbelievable rate. I flew over the Mt Waddington area and I couldn't fathom how much the glaciers have retreated in that region since about 30 years ago. It looked like a completely different area.

Time to shut'r down for the summer Cmen, done with heat humps mini humps over the hill heat humps almost heat domes.

[SouthSardiswx]

So mentally done with this heat

Throwing my boxers into the Hound, Bones enough of this heat ring.

[SouthSardiswx]

So what's the actual temperature criteria for the heat warning, 30°+?
It'll be interesting to see if YVR down to White Rock reaches 30°

Heat warning tolerance BC Weather forums
Gumps 20c
Hound & Bones 15c
John 10c
Everyone else suck it up buttercup 32c

[SouthSardiswx]

So mentally done with this heat

l'm with ya bro.