August 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Nordelian
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Re: August 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Nordelian »

Typeing3 wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 12:03 am Yeah, I was shocked looking at those lows, especially in comparison to the average highs.

I believe @Glacier has mentioned this many times before, that most of the warming seen on the climate averages (especially in urban areas) is extremely pronounced in average low temps, relative to average highs.
Note that the warming of average lows is mostly due to the UHI (Urban Heat Island) - buildings give off heat which provides a source of warmth during the overnight that may not have been present 50+ years ago for some climate stations.

YXX is a great example of an area that has developed substantially since the 50s, so it's makes sense that the lows have warmed considerably.
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Re: August 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

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Re: August 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Hawk wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 6:08 am Wait a minute...Average Low around 8-9c? No way. I would chalk this down to poor record keeping, etc. I have brought this up before(poor records).
Even it much of the dry spell was marine air, it still wouldn't drop the Lows that far. So what about the nights in that stretch when the Lows were around 15-16c? Or 12-13c? Then the monthly average ends up at 8.5? :lol: :lol: So that means there must have been several nights when the Lows were 5-6c or so? :bs: :bs:
Urban heat island effect.

Pavement.
Roofs.
Building structures.
Exposed top soil.
Low level ozone.

This can have a profound effect on temperatures through heat retention on a regional scale. Even for locations 100km away from the UHI.
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Re: August 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

wetcoast91 wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 8:26 am Urban heat island effect.

Pavement.
Roofs.
Building structures.
Exposed top soil.
Low level ozone.
NITO

This can have a profound effect on temperatures through heat retention on a regional scale. Even for locations 100km away from the UHI.
:think:
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

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2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

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Re: August 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Catnip wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 8:54 am:think:
Yes, he usually ushers in those balmy SW winds. :think:
Spring/Summer :sick: Fall/Winter :thumbup:

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Re: August 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

wetcoast91 wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 8:26 am Urban heat island effect.

Pavement.
Roofs.
Building structures.
Exposed top soil.
Low level ozone.

This can have a profound effect on temperatures through heat retention on a regional scale. Even for locations 100km away from the UHI.
:think: :think: Even 100km? Cmon Nito.. :shock:
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
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Re: August 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

wetcoast91 wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 8:26 am Urban heat island effect.

Pavement.
Roofs.
Building structures.
Exposed top soil.
Low level ozone.

This can have a profound effect on temperatures through heat retention on a regional scale. Even for locations 100km away from the UHI.
What happened to hot air rises? :think:
I think as opposed to the UHI, i suggest that the removal of trees and forests have allowed the warming air to dominate. Forests lock in the colder air. They gave a cozy place for the arctic air to stay entrenched. GVRD used to be mainly forested in the 50's. Now it is UHI's. Double whammy. :thumbdown: :thumbdown:
Goodbye winters from the past? Will we ever get another 1951 winter again? :itstime: :itstime: :itstime:
:think:
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
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Re: August 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Hawk wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 11:45 am What happened to hot air rises? :think:
I think as opposed to the UHI, i suggest that the removal of trees and forests have allowed the warming air to dominate.
:think:
I would suggest the removal of said trees and forests is a part of the UHI. :shock:
Spring/Summer :sick: Fall/Winter :thumbup:

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Re: August 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Hawk wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 11:45 am What happened to hot air rises? :think:
I think as opposed to the UHI, i suggest that the removal of trees and forests have allowed the warming air to dominate. Forests lock in the colder air. They gave a cozy place for the arctic air to stay entrenched. GVRD used to be mainly forested in the 50's. Now it is UHI's. Double whammy. :thumbdown: :thumbdown:
Goodbye winters from the past? Will we ever get another 1951 winter again? :itstime: :itstime: :itstime:
:think:
1951 winter? Yes, for sure.

1950 winter? Yes, at some point, but probably not anytime soon for us to experience it. :?
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Re: August 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Forrest Gump »

Catnip wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:49 am I saw some similar reports from Tulameen, although it was closer to 1.5-2" (40-50mm)
Ah yes , it's all coming back to me, from gr.9 social studies , about the bitter and fierce Similkameens vs Tulameens rivalry , equalled only by the Hatfields- McCoys family feud. In 1875 The Similkameens were pushed deep into the mountains east of hwy 5a by the Tulameens , they then retreated back west of the hwy and settled near Otter lake, where they currently have a thriving community with quad rentals, a community centre, an outdoor skating rink, a library, a volunteer fire department, a skidoo dealer and repair centre, and a general store. While the Similkameens currently has umm.. nothing , maybe some snowmobiling with one cabin.

~FakeiPedia~

The Similkameens
Feud-gallery-FD2068M_WVRHC.jpg
The Tulameens
5Y5Y5JWC2ZMJZDGB7VLSYQNOEA.jpg
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Re: August 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Abby_wx »

Nordelian wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 7:34 am Note that the warming of average lows is mostly due to the UHI (Urban Heat Island) - buildings give off heat which provides a source of warmth during the overnight that may not have been present 50+ years ago for some climate stations.

YXX is a great example of an area that has developed substantially since the 50s, so it's makes sense that the lows have warmed considerably.
I was actually thinking the opposite - the area of YXX has not significantly urbanized since the 50's. Not compared to other areas.

Outside of the South Fraser Way corridor, Abbotsford is not a very heavily ubanized area. Just look at Google Earth and compare to other places such as Langley city, Port Kells, Newton, Annacis Island, Sea Island (YVR)... all places that have significantly urbanized over the last 70 years.

Some UHI effect is likely, but I don't think it's the main driver.
:dragon:

Fall/Winter 2023/24
Low min: -16.6C (Jan 12th)
Low max: -9.9C (Jan 12th)
Snowfall: 8.0 cm
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Re: August 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Abby_wx »

Hawk wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 6:08 am Wait a minute...Average Low around 8-9c? No way. I would chalk this down to poor record keeping, etc. I have brought this up before(poor records).
Even it much of the dry spell was marine air, it still wouldn't drop the Lows that far. So what about the nights in that stretch when the Lows were around 15-16c? Or 12-13c? Then the monthly average ends up at 8.5? :lol: :lol: So that means there must have been several nights when the Lows were 5-6c or so? :bs: :bs:
I don't think it's really a stretch. Even in our warming climate we're capable of lows between 5C and 7C during June.

Take 2014 for example: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... 14&Month=6#

Or June 2019 when we dropped to 5.9C: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... 19&Month=6#

We can easily drop below 8C in July as well: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... 08&Month=7#

I've seen temps drop as low as 7.3C in July, but I can't remember if it was official.

Those types of lows are certainly getting less frequent, but they can still occur under the right conditions. We may never see a low of 5C in July again (at least in our lifetimes), but lows of 6C-7C are still possible, IMO.
:dragon:

Fall/Winter 2023/24
Low min: -16.6C (Jan 12th)
Low max: -9.9C (Jan 12th)
Snowfall: 8.0 cm
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Re: August 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Ovonucks »

The site is so slow to load these days. What's going on
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Re: August 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

Ovonucks wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 6:51 pm The site is so slow to load these days. What's going on
Too many users :lol: :lol:
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Re: August 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

Helicopters are waterbombing a fire not far from me...again. :o They use a lake a few blocks away but at least the fire is quite some distance from me, can't see or smell the smoke this time. Wondering if they have it out now because the heli has stopped flying.
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