August 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

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[AbbyJr]

Here are the 19Z National Blend of Models:

nbmabbotsford.png

nbmagassiz.png

nbmpittmeadows.png

nbmvancouver.png

nbmyvr.png

[Typeing3]

Howdy everyone! Hope you're all surviving well these days

I was just wondering when the last time we have had this many days in a row over 30° Celsius, say, at yxx...

By the looks of it, this stretch could end up going a full 7 days which would be pretty impressive for Abbotsford.

I've been going to the river every day this week so far.... Been super nice.

While I haven't looked at all the historical data, the two heat events I'm aware of that are similar to this current heatwave would be the August 1981 event and the famous June 2021 heat storm.

The August 1981 heatwave featured 6 days above 30C. Most of those days were in the mid-upper 30's with high humidity.

The June 2021 event was obviously the most intense heatwave that featured temperatures in the mid-upper 30's and low 40's. During the heat storm, Abbotsford recorded 5 days over 32C and two days over 40C. High humidity was the theme throughout the entire event.

This current heatwave will likely end up featuring 7 days of 30C+ temperatures with high humidity. Most of the days being in the low-mid 30's with the humidex in the upper-low 40's.

Comparing this current heatwave to the 1981 and 2021 event, this one looks very similar to the one that occurred in 1981.

Add July 2018 into the mix. If you look at EC's historical data for that month, a couple days are missing, but they were north of 30C. Off the top of my head there were eight consecutive days 30 or greater. There were three days in a row of 33.

I think I might be an outlier here. Growing up in the Okanagan, I loathe the marine layer. There's Nov - Mar for consistently grey, clammy weather lovers. Despite the heat, the sun brightens my mood. A few days of troughiness in mid-summer with some needed rain, fine. But a depressing marine layer with drizzle on what would otherwise be a sunny morning: hard pass.

Wonder what the record is for number of days over 30 degrees, today is day 7!

Yes, and YXX hit 34.1 officially as a high today - meaning that's day 6 of consecutive days over 32C. That's gotta be close to (if not actually) a new record...

Answer is below. Record-keeping in Abbotsford began relatively late compared with some other locations in the Lower Mainland but still has existed uninterrupted since 1935, first in Upper Sumas from 1935 until 1944. Then at YXX from 1945 until present.

Longest Daily Streaks 30c+ In Abbotsford.png

[Typeing3]

Here's another stat:

Latest 30c+ in Abbotsford.png

Note: Will cross post both tables into the "Weather Stats" forum, here: https://forums.bcstorms.ca/viewtopic.php?f=201&t=251

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (6).png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (7).png

12z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (8).png

[Typeing3]

20220805225734-4d2d6571c4532f0f59f03fa451fd52f0f2af1784.png

[Forrest Gump]

Answer is below. Record-keeping in Abbotsford began relatively late compared with some other locations in the Lower Mainland but still has existed uninterrupted since 1935, first in Upper Sumas from 1935 until 1944. Then at YXX from 1945 until present.
Longest Daily Streaks 30c+ In Abbotsford.png

Seems like 2018 was the big winner , only 4 years ago , how quickly people forget...I'm not implying I have a good memory.

[Forrest Gump]

Some interesting dew point differences atm

Chilliwack 8°
Abbotsford 14°
Langley 14°
White rock 11°
Surrey 11°
Coquitlam 11°
Vancouver 16°
Richmond 16°
Sechelt 12°
Victoria 10°
Comox 8°
Whistler 6°

[Forrest Gump]

What the? I've been hoodwinked by EC. I just discovered that on their app South Surrey uses White Rock's weather staion ; Vancouver , Richmond,and Delta uses YVR ; Langley,Mission, and Abbotsford uses YXX ; Surrey and Coquitlam uses Pitt Meadows ; North Delta uses Burns Bog ; Chilliwack uses Agassiz ; Sardis uses Cultas Lake; Sechelt uses Nanaimo ...ok I'm joking on the last one miss creeker but not on the others. I should've been more suspicious before when I saw the same temps and dp for those areas .

[SouthSardiswx]

Here are the 19Z National Blend of Models:

nbmabbotsford.png

nbmagassiz.png

nbmpittmeadows.png

nbmvancouver.png

nbmyvr.png

Thanks for finding my EKG results Jr. Man misplaced them. might need to go on Skipper Gumps diet of prunes and bran.

[Roberts Creeker]

Results are in on the A Little More Realistic heatwave contest. https://forums.bcstorms.ca/viewtopic.php?f=111&t=1701

Huge thank you to Vancity for scoring

and congratulations to T3, Vancity and EC (first place for YXX who woulda thought)

[SouthSardiswx]

Seems like 2018 was the big winner , only 4 years ago , how quickly people forget...I'm not implying I have a good memory.

Better than me skipper l forget. It's a pleasant summer evening @ the pond in south Sardis clear skies and 18c.

[SouthSardiswx]

What the? I've been hoodwinked by EC. I just discovered that on their app South Surrey uses White Rock's weather staion ; Vancouver , Richmond,and Delta uses YVR ; Langley,Mission, and Abbotsford uses YXX ; Surrey and Coquitlam uses Pitt Meadows ; North Delta uses Burns Bog ; Chilliwack uses Agassiz ; Sardis uses Cultas Lake; Sechelt uses Nanaimo ...ok I'm joking on the last one miss creeker but not on the others. I should've been more suspicious before when I saw the same temps and dp for those areas .

Actually skipper Gimps if you read the fine print it should say CGA Corporal Goose Approved if not it's incorrect.

[SouthSardiswx]

That's actually a decent looking heat hump coming up Thotter.

[SouthSardiswx]

I'll take snow for 10cm El Neats.