July 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[Monty]

Feel like I Haven’t checked in here in a long time. Hope everyone is having a great summer.

Next weeks heat wave is looking kind of open ended at this point. Depending on how that Little low behaves out in the pacific the heat could easily last a week or more. Sort of a winter like wave train. With a blocking ridge just to our west with a low meandering just to the east of Hawaii

[Hawk]

EC has it pretty warm Sunday - Wednesday. I hope they're wrong.

Its not the daytime Highs that are troublesome, its the L of 17c back to back nights that is
Good luck sleeping at night unless you got AC or HP

[Hawk]

The latest seasonal update from the CPC yesterday showed a cooler than normal winter in our area. Classic Nina for DJF.

and . When have we seen this movie before?

[Hawk]

Tremendous Stratus push overnight
Nice morning

[Roberts Creeker]

Tremendous Stratus push overnight
Nice morning

Very nice morning! And I'm happy to see the heat keeps moving of to the end of the forecast. Hope it keeps on going just like all our epic snowfalls.

Currently 18.1 with high overcast.

[Glacier]

Sunny is great. This heat wave is not necessary. The Similkameens is going to get roasted next week. Temps will be pushing 40c many days

fun fact: Princeton is on average MUCH colder than Fort St. John in the summer. At night. Same elevation, but Fort St. John is wayyyyyy up north! Explain this one other than anyone in the Similkameens is crazy to live in a place even colder than the far north of BC. brrrr!

Average lows in Princeton:
May = 3.7 C...brrr!
June = 7.3 C...brrr!
July = 9.5 C...brrr!
August = 9.0 C...brrr!
September = 4.7 C...brrr!



Average lows in Fort St. John:
May = 4.0 C
June = 8.6 C
July = 10.7 C
August = 9.2 C
September = 4.9 C

[Typeing3]

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... 9829059584

https://twitter.com/Squamishweather/sta ... 8538418177

https://mobile.twitter.com/MMadryga/sta ... 0994446345

https://mobile.twitter.com/MMadryga/sta ... 0249219073

https://twitter.com/PeterVogel/status/1 ... 5323043843

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... 7470589953

[Typeing3]

https://twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/1 ... 1428113408

https://twitter.com/chrisnunley/status/ ... 1434132480

https://twitter.com/chrisnunley/status/ ... 7828071424

https://twitter.com/chrisnunley/status/ ... 6757774336

https://twitter.com/SeattleWXGuy/status ... 7289518080

https://mobile.twitter.com/wx_washingto ... 1306319872

https://twitter.com/SeattleWXGuy/status ... 0251617289

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image.png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (1).png

12z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (2).png

[Typeing3]

20220722221647-3a819ddcc94d47119cfe541bc0f907e33104462b.png

[wetcoast91]

Potentially another unprecedented event coming up with the overall duration of heat. I fully expect fire danger to elevate in the interior. The lengthy cool spring led to a lot of grass and shrub growth.

You would think humans would be alarmed about the global heat events but the loudest voices in the room are suggesting it's all fake news.

[Typeing3]

Couple of youtube shorts from Wednesday and yesterday showing a perspective on heatwave frequency and temp records at YXX (vid #1) and discussion regarding the upcoming heatwave (vid #2).
https://twitter.com/djones_weather/stat ... 7303843840
https://twitter.com/djones_weather/stat ... 3763591169

[Typeing3]

Cross posted from the "Random Stats" thread below. If anyone's dug through the EC historical records or remembers a month at a specific location that matched or was warmer than either of these, please share.

Are these the warmest months ever recorded in BC (or Canada)?

July 1906: Spences Bridge
Average high: 35.5c
Mean temp: 26.6c
Average low: 17.6c
Extreme high: 42.2c

Source: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... &Year=1906


July 2021: Warfield
Average high: 35.6c
Mean temp: 25.7c
Average low: 15.7c
Extreme high: 40.0c

Source: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... 21&Month=7#

[Hawk]

fun fact: Princeton is on average MUCH colder than Fort St. John in the summer. At night. Same elevation, but Fort St. John is wayyyyyy up north! Explain this one other than anyone in the Similkameens is crazy to live in a place even colder than the far north of BC. brrrr!

Average lows in Princeton:
May = 3.7 C...brrr!
June = 7.3 C...brrr!
July = 9.5 C...brrr!
August = 9.0 C...brrr!
September = 4.7 C...brrr!

Terrain. The silkameens plateau is very chilly indeed! And sometimes drops below zero even in July at night time. I'm talking mostly in the areas to the north of Princeton where people have cabins. It is also not uncommon to see it snowing in the mountains even in July. Not that far up from where my cabin is a few hundred feet in elevation.
and



Average lows in Fort St. John:
May = 4.0 C
June = 8.6 C
July = 10.7 C
August = 9.2 C
September = 4.9 C

[Monty]

Potentially another unprecedented event coming up with the overall duration of heat. I fully expect fire danger to elevate in the interior. The lengthy cool spring led to a lot of grass and shrub growth.

You would think humans would be alarmed about the global heat events but the loudest voices in the room are suggesting it's all fake news.

The fact that the heat is so widespread across multiple continents in pretty alarming.

But I think Australia set a new record low last week. So that offsets the heat really.

F06BC861-8160-492F-83DB-112C7427042E.jpeg