May 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[Glacier]

Going to be MASSIVE fires this summer because we have below normal snowpack.

Yes, the Okanagan is the only drainage basin in the province below normal, but as we know from the media if it's 0.0001% below normal that means massive fires (even though there's no correlation between snowpack and fire activity), and if it's 0.00001% above normal that means massive flooding so the rest of you are getting massive flooding this year.

Screenshot_20220510-072111-536.png

[PortKells]

Going to be MASSIVE fires this summer because we have below normal snowpack.

Yes, the Okanagan is the only drainage basin in the province below normal, but as we know from the media if it's 0.0001% below normal that means massive fires (even though there's no correlation between snowpack and fire activity), and if it's 0.00001% above normal that means mass of flooding so the rest of you are getting massive flooding this year.

Screenshot_20220510-072111-536.png

I'm amazed you guys are below normal.
Personally I don't care what the snowpack is for fires. It can melt off into weeks and have raging infernos all ready to go. 2018 for example. We need a nice mild summer with cool stretches to keep things in check.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Heard on the radio this morning that this spring has a lot in common with springs leading into major floods on the Fraser.

If we get a June heat wave, that’s all it would take at this point with May shaping up the way it is.

[Roberts Creeker]

Absolutely amazing shot Ms. Puffycloudscreek, have you ever submitted your photos to Global TV,s weather window? your awesome at capturing the perfect weather shots, animals as well.

Thank you! I haven't submitted them anywhere just share them here and on facebook.

[Hawk]

Heard on the radio this morning that this spring has a lot in common with springs leading into major floods on the Fraser.

If we get a June heat wave, that’s all it would take at this point with May shaping up the way it is.

Good point Rubus! There is some serious snowpack at around the ~3000 to 3500++ft mark..hasnt gone anywhere in the last 6 to 15 weeks really.

[Typeing3]

Updates on the local snowpack:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Brad604/stat ... 1459110912

https://mobile.twitter.com/Brad604/stat ... 3238792193

https://mobile.twitter.com/Brad604/stat ... 0160410624

https://mobile.twitter.com/Brad604/stat ... 7122254849


Will be interesting to see how significant the spring freshet is this year. If we get a large amount of rain , soon followed by a heatwave anytime from late May into June, that could could spell some flooding issues for areas near major tributaries or rivers like the Thompson or Fraser.

[Typeing3]

https://mobile.twitter.com/50ShadesofVa ... 6664853504

https://mobile.twitter.com/50ShadesofVa ... 9119221762

https://mobile.twitter.com/KSeattleWeat ... 0172787712

https://mobile.twitter.com/KSeattleWeat ... 3665356800

https://mobile.twitter.com/SeattleWXGuy ... 8829776896

[stuffradio]

It's crazy how different this Spring is compared to last year. In other exciting news, Mrs and I are expecting baby #3 in December!

[Typeing3]

On the topic of spring flooding in BC, these are the top three most infamous events in recorded history.

1894

The greatest Fraser River flood in the past century occurred in 1894, when the floodplain areas were in the very early stages of settlement and development. The lower Fraser Valley was sparsely populated, and Kamloops, Prince George, and Quesnel were essentially frontier settlements. This flood forewarned the hazard of occupying the Fraser River floodplain in the years to come.

1948

In 1948, Fraser River flooding was the greatest since that of 1894. The passage of five decades had witnessed the transformation of the lower Fraser Valley into a highly developed agricultural area, with commercial and industrial development becoming appreciable and suburban residential areas beginning to appear. Two transcontinental rail lines and the Trans-Canada Highway had been built through the valley, and the largest airport in the province had been established on Sea Island.

On June 10, 1948, the Fraser reached a peak elevation of 7.6 metres at Mission. Before the waters receded, over a dozen dyking systems had been breached and more than 22 000 hectares, nearly one third of the entire lower Fraser Valley floodplain area, had been flooded to this depth. The floodwaters severed the two transcontinental rail lines; inundated the Trans-Canada Highway; flooded urban areas such as Agassiz, Rosedale, and parts of Mission, forcing many industries to close or reduce production; and deposited a layer of silt, driftwood and other debris over the entire area.

The estimated damage amounted to $20 million ($146.9 million in 1998 dollars), most of which occurred in the lower Fraser Valley. Minor damage occurred in the Kamloops, Prince George and Quesnel areas, owing to the limited development of their floodplains at that time.

1972

The next major flood year was 1972. The first sign of potential spring flooding was predicted from snow surveys in February when above-average snowfalls were recorded. Subsequent surveys also indicated heavy mountain snowpacks. In mid-March, the provincial government alerted personnel and civil defence units of the possibility of flooding along the Fraser. In mid-April, meetings were held to coordinate and plan the activities of agencies that would be involved in the response to the flooding.

High temperatures in the Interior valleys toward the end of May caused rapid snowmelt, and many of the Interior rivers peaked at record levels in the latter part of May and in the first week of June. To protect low-lying lands, sandbagging of Prince George and Kamloops was undertaken. A number of subdivisions were inundated on June 2 in Kamloops, and in one area, 150 homes and 52 mobile homes were flooded due to dyke failure.

Following a cooling trend beginning on May 30, substantial snowmelt again occurred with a sudden rise in temperature, accompanied by heavy rains. Subsequently, the upper Fraser reached another peak between June 11 and 14. On June 16, the lower Fraser peaked at Hope, with a maximum instantaneous flow of 3400 cubic metres per second and a maximum elevation of 7.1 metres, well above the danger level of 6.1 metres.

This second and last major peak of the season, which was higher than the first, increased the extent of flooding in already flooded areas. On the Fraser River, the areas most affected were Prince George in the upper Fraser and downstream from Hope in the lower Fraser Valley. The dyking systems were generally effective in preventing large-scale damage.

Damage on the Fraser in 1972 amounted to $10 million ($36.9 million in 1998 dollars) and occurred mainly in the upstream communities of Prince George and Kamloops, and in the Surrey area of the lower Fraser Valley.

Source: https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-cl ... umbia.html

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (12).png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (13).png

12z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (14).png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (12).png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (13).png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (14).png

Near normal temperatures for Victoria Day weekend? Would be nice!

[Glacier]

On the topic of spring flooding in BC, these are the top three most infamous events in recorded history.

Flood marker in Kamloops that I took a picture of back in 2012 when the Thompson River was flooding...

30582302_10155988484036628_5425191049498722304_n.jpg

I'm amazed you guys are below normal.
Personally I don't care what the snowpack is for fires. It can melt off into weeks and have raging infernos all ready to go. 2018 for example. We need a nice mild summer with cool stretches to keep things in check.

It has been a very dry winter so even with cold, the extra snow in the past week or two isn't enough to make up for being so dry for so long.

Environment Canada claims that April was the 3rd driest since 1899 in Kelowna, but that's a lie. I count 17 other Aprils that were drier.

fraserflow.png

[Typeing3]

Flood marker in Kamloops that I took a picture of back in 2012 when the Thompson River was flooding...

30582302_10155988484036628_5425191049498722304_n.jpg

I've been to that park many times in the past. That marker showing past flood levels is really cool; I'm always astounded as to how high the river rose in 1894.

[Hawk]

It's crazy how different this Spring is compared to last year. In other exciting news, Mrs and I are expecting baby #3 in December!

Good work Stuffy..going for the hatrick.. cuz u sure are putting the puck in the net lately

[SouthSardiswx]

It's crazy how different this Spring is compared to last year. In other exciting news, Mrs and I are expecting baby #3 in December!

Congrats ole bear Stuffs, didn't think the weather was that boring for other activities.