February 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Typeing3
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Re: February 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Thu Feb 17, 2022 1:36 am Yeah l kinda wondered Tspoon about the Cranbrook area as lush greenery as it looks it's misleading l suppose.
How does Creston do for snowfall? although it's definitely one town l would never move to, we spent a night there back on Canada day eve back in 2011 most depressing town. Was glad to leave there the next day, the next night we spent the night in Oliver and saw the most awesome Canada day fireworks on the lake in Osoyoos. We've seen them before while camping in Osoyoos on the July 1st weekend when the Knuckles traded for Luongo in 2006.
I think that was the same year Burke tried to pry the Sedins away when he was the GM in Laffs land.
Definetly a bit misleading. Most of the valley north and south of Cranbrook is traditionally grassland with fairly sparse forest cover.

Creston gets a bit more snow than Cranbrook mainly because it's a wetter climate. It's in a valley further west but it's also at a lower elevation and a bit further south so it's warmer on average in the winter.
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Re: February 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (4).png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (5).png
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Re: February 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Monty »

Typeing3 wrote: Thu Feb 17, 2022 2:09 pm Backdoor arctic fart. :lol:
Quite possibly. Something like early February 2014. Though a touch milder due to later in the season.

Dropped to -9 here with that. About what we saw in December in terms of low temperatures but the days would be sunny and much milder.
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Re: February 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Forrest Gump »

Typeing3 wrote: Thu Feb 17, 2022 12:17 am Gotta move to Halifax! Or is that too far east... :shh:
Yup, maritmes is the place to go, buy 20 homes for the price of one.
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Re: February 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Typeing3 wrote: Thu Feb 17, 2022 2:13 pm Definetly a bit misleading. Most of the valley north and south of Cranbrook is traditionally grassland with fairly sparse forest cover.

Creston gets a bit more snow than Cranbrook mainly because it's a wetter climate. It's in a valley further west but it's also at a lower elevation and a bit further south so it's warmer on average in the winter.
Talking about the Kootenays, ymir is a hidden gem and gets major snow.
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Re: February 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Typeing3 wrote: Thu Feb 17, 2022 2:18 pm 12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (5).png
:shock:
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Re: February 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

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Monty wrote: Thu Feb 17, 2022 2:29 pm Quite possibly. Something like early February 2014. Though a touch milder due to later in the season.

Dropped to -9 here with that. About what we saw in December in terms of low temperatures but the days would be sunny and much milder.
850mb temps dropped as low as -16c at YVR during the early Feb 2014 cold snap.

As of now this is looking more like the late Feb/early March 2019 cold snap, in terms of how low 850mb temps might drop.
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Re: February 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

18z GFS ensembles
ens_image (6).png
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Re: February 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Monty »

Typeing3 wrote: Thu Feb 17, 2022 4:58 pm 850mb temps dropped as low as -16c at YVR during the early Feb 2014 cold snap.

As of now this is looking more like the late Feb/early March 2019 cold snap, in terms of how low 850mb temps might drop.
-16 is legit. I didn’t remember that being so cold. 🥶
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Re: February 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Monty wrote: Thu Feb 17, 2022 5:58 pm -16 is legit. I didn’t remember that being so cold. 🥶
Yeah. Despite the favourable upper level temps, Surface temps were not too impressive. No snowcover, too much of an easterly component and too much wind.

Other than the late Dec cold snap this winter, these are the most impressive cold snaps this century from an upper level perspective.
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Re: February 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

Forrest Gump wrote: Thu Feb 17, 2022 3:06 pm Yup, maritmes is the place to go, buy 20 homes for the price of one.
You'd better get your snow making machine out, looks like you'll have a chance to catch up! :lol: :lol:
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Re: February 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Antares »

Typeing3 wrote: Thu Feb 17, 2022 2:13 pm Definetly a bit misleading. Most of the valley north and south of Cranbrook is traditionally grassland with fairly sparse forest cover.

Creston gets a bit more snow than Cranbrook mainly because it's a wetter climate. It's in a valley further west but it's also at a lower elevation and a bit further south so it's warmer on average in the winter.
The Cranbrook airport is also in a very dry microclimate with sagebrush in some spots. Where I live it is a bit wetter and snowier. Moyie is quite wet as well thanks to the geography there. Probably the driest areas I've seen here are Elko north to Canal Flats, at least at valley bottom.

Back in December I drove to Creston one afternoon and it was -1C there and when I came back to Cranbrook it was -8C.

Looks like a decent cold spell coming up here. :clap:
It always snows in December in the Kootenays :clap:
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Re: February 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Monty »

:shock:
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Re: February 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

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00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (7).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (8).png
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Re: February 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

The hazelnut trees are in full flower.

What's the probability of snow? EC's keeping it a secret. Probably a good sign? :cheerlead: :cheerlead:
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