October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[SouthSardiswx]

Absolutley incredible today, low snow levels for the time of year 5.7mm in the rain bucket today 30.9mm for the month puts me ahead of Abby Sr. the surprises keep on coming.

[Typeing3]

Yes Buttie.
Anchored frigid Arctic High over PNW troffing...nm the GOA block..too weak to sustain cold around here.

With a leading arctic front which has heavy snow and actually drops temps rather than warm downsloping with backdoor E flow.

[SouthSardiswx]

With a leading arctic front which has heavy snow and actually drops temps rather than warm downsloping with backdoor E flow.

The dreaded Arctic fart which includes a drop in dewpoints only is the new norm in these parts now. Hoping this year is different.

[Hawk]

With a leading arctic front which has heavy snow and actually drops temps rather than warm downsloping with backdoor E flow.

Yes KeyboardWiz..The GOA High - block allows warm air over the top. We need to cut the warm flow off for once. Maybe this year we will get some serious cold. I remember when i was young..we would often get outflows and very frigid air. Last 25 years i've never seen so many outflows where temps sit at +3 to +6C all night long in Annusiz. Pathetic.

[Typeing3]

Yes KeyboardWiz..The GOA High - block allows warm air over the top. We need to cut the warm flow off for once. Maybe this year we will get some serious cold. I remember when i was young..we would often get outflows and very frigid air. Last 25 years i've never seen so many outflows where temps sit at +3 to +6C all night long in Annusiz. Pathetic.

I thought the original shot of arctic air last Feb was quite decent...although we mostly only saw a few flurries and blowing dust with that front...it did drop temps thru the day from 3C early in the morning to near -5C by 3pm.

The front in Feb 2018 was decent as well...temps dropped from around 5C to -2C in less than two hours with 2-4cm snow associated with the front.

Going back to the winter of 2016-17 however...we had so many arctic intrusions but all were mostly E/NE oriented. if not for the snowpack allowing for an inversion at the lower levels for the backdoor arctic shot in early Jan 2017, temps would have run much warmer. Meanwhile, Portland and the rest of Oregon saw frigid temps in early Jan as E/NE flow is very conductive to extreme cold anomalies for those locales. One of the reasons why Eugene, Oregon dropped to an astonishing -23C in December 2013 while YVR struggled to drop below -10C.

[Typeing3]

Pretty much past max heating now...temps haven't really shot up despite the clear skies. Currently 9.4C here with a light NE breeze

[SouthSardiswx]

Today would have been a fantastic day to have Hugecorn man and his pilot reports from his John Denver special aircraft.

[Storm]

https://twitter.com/SasquatchResort/sta ... 72992?s=19

[Storm]

An other one.
https://twitter.com/grousemountain/stat ... 86848?s=19

[AbbyJr]

GFS and Euro much wetter than the dry GEM solutions in the long range.

Blob also disappearing.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1change.png

[SouthSardiswx]

And a weak Nina forming for a later appearance. an awesome winter is in the cards me thinks January included.

[Typeing3]

Temps dropping off rapidly now...7.3C currently.

[wetcoast91]

positive splat test in white rock...may be rain mixed with hail but it definitely looked like rain/snow mixed.

[Hawk]

I dunno Nito..prolly some sort of sloppy hail. Dps too high

[Hawk]

Awesome instability today and temp drops during precip. Some intense looking cells around also
Cold and unstable...my fave weather. Also reminds me of my ex hahahah