January 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[SouthSardiswx]

Some maps/models are showing much more warmer temps.

Yeah, that's why l wasn't getting all amped up with the cold/snowy solutions the models were spitting out last week.
I wouldn't call it a rug pull or collapse either just a shift back to climo Neets style.
Last month would have been an absolute rug or collapse had it not turned out the way it did l'm not disappointed really l'm not.

[Hawk]

Good morning everybuttee. Enjoy the fog Again

[SouthSardiswx]

For those ready to give up on winter. ripped from the AF folks.

https://media0.giphy.com/media/3og0IwwU ... s8/200.gif

[wetcoast91]

+PNA, +EPO, MJO stuck in 1/7
Game over.

Just wish this had come in March/April. We'd be seeing a very pleasant stretch of weather.

[Hawk]

Lol Jan 26 and winter is done?

So no more snow at all this year?

[AbbyJr]

Lol Jan 26 and winter is done?

So no more snow at all this year?

History tells us that there is still lots of chances for cold and snow.

February 23rd 2014:

feb232014.gif

February 18th 2018:

feb182018.gif

March 5th 1951:

march051951.gif

March 18th 2002:

march182002.gif

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles

ens_image (2).png

[SouthSardiswx]

shorts and Tees weather Tmild what a turn around keeps getting warmer with each run. If that comes to fruition the snow pack will be absolutely inihalated.

[stuffradio]

shorts and Tees weather Tmild what a turn around keeps getting warmer with each run. If that comes to fruition the snow pack will be absolutely inihalated.

Not really

gfs-deterministic-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-3198400.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Getting some sunbreaks here. Just took a short walk to the top of the ridge, and Downtown and the North Shore still look socked in.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

shorts and Tees weather Tmild what a turn around keeps getting warmer with each run. If that comes to fruition the snow pack will be absolutely inihalated.

Not as I read it. The operational is mostly below the long-term mean starting next month, and the ensemble and long-term means are roughly the same. So no annihilated snowpack next month. It is way warm at higher elevations right now, but it is also dry. Ridges like this seldom do great damage to the mountain snowpack. Warm air is nowhere near the snow-eater that warm rain is (water has a much higher heat capacity than air).

I, for one, have no complaints about this dry weather. It will end soon enough.

[Typeing3]

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... 3170793479

https://twitter.com/commoditywx/status/ ... 9556641793

https://twitter.com/commoditywx/status/ ... 3325400070

https://twitter.com/commoditywx/status/ ... 6656110593

[Typeing3]

https://twitter.com/_carloslazarini/sta ... 1704768513

[Typeing3]

Thickest fog I've seen so far this week rolling through here currently. I'd estimate visibility is down to ~300-400m.

[Hawk]

Thickest fog I've seen so far this week rolling through here currently. I'd estimate visibility is down to ~300-400m.

Watch for some possible inversion flurries to pop up in the thickest fog...in areas of low level compressional winds. Only problem is it will be so tuff to see the flakes
Tell em Nito!!