January 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[Abby_wx]

My snow shovel of 25 years (originally bought by my father) got busted on the hard packed snow and ice from the last event. Any recommendations for a replacement? I saw some at Canadian Tire, but they were just the type that push the snow. I would prefer an actual shovel, and preferably something more sturdy than cheap plastic.

[Monty]

My snow shovel of 25 years (originally bought by my father) got busted on the hard packed snow and ice from the last event. Any recommendations for a replacement? I saw some at Canadian Tire, but they were just the type that push the snow. I would prefer an actual shovel, and preferably something more sturdy than cheap plastic.

I use a grain scoop if the snow is too heavy to push. It’s plastic but sturdy. I shovel gravel with them at work too

https://www.rona.ca/en/product/garant-g ... d-01235676

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles

ens_image (25).png

[Typeing3]

No cut off on the GEM


gem-all-namer-z500_anom-3716800.png

Based on that 500mb look, seems like the trough splits cutting us off from the arctic air and digs too far south. I'd guess a cool and showery result here

[Monty]

Based on that 500mb look, seems like the trough splits cutting us off from the arctic air and digs too far south. I'd guess a cool and showery result here

Models are historically pretty bad handling cutoff lows so we will see how things play out in the next few days. But that pattern days 8-10 on the gfs and euro do not look promising for arctic air any time soon.

[Roberts Creeker]

My snow shovel of 25 years (originally bought by my father) got busted on the hard packed snow and ice from the last event. Any recommendations for a replacement? I saw some at Canadian Tire, but they were just the type that push the snow. I would prefer an actual shovel, and preferably something more sturdy than cheap plastic.

I use a flat shovel like this. Works great for hard snow and also in the barn.

https://www.princessauto.com/en/60-in-w ... 0008600637

[PortKells]

Models are historically pretty bad handling cutoff lows so we will see how things play out in the next few days. But that pattern days 8-10 on the gfs and euro do not look promising for arctic air any time soon.

I kind of thought that days 8-15 were far more effectively modelled by ensembles and within 7 days is when operationals start to matter a lot more?

[PortKells]

The EPS just took a step back. Oh well...still on for some good skiing weather at the very least.

[Monty]

I kind of thought that days 8-15 were far more effectively modelled by ensembles and within 7 days is when operationals start to matter a lot more?

Generally the ensembles are better yes. But I’ve definitely seen the operationals lead the way when it comes to complicated patterns involving cutoff lows and such. If that cutoff low retrogrades back west a bit, we will probably get nailed with arctic air. But seeing it progress to the east under the Alaskan ridge kind of leaves us in no mans land in terms of active or cold weather.

[AbbyJr]

Generally the ensembles are better yes. But I’ve definitely seen the operationals lead the way when it comes to complicated patterns involving cutoff lows and such. If that cutoff low retrogrades back west a bit, we will probably get nailed with arctic air. But seeing it progress to the east under the Alaskan ridge kind of leaves us in no mans land in terms of active or cold weather.

The fact is that there is still lots of uncertainties and a wide range of possible solutions. It's not unusual to see models flip flop before finally locking onto the pattern. Regardless of the outcome, I'm satisfied with this winter. That said, having one more cold and snowy pattern in February would be an extra special bonus.

[Monty]

The fact is that there is still lots of uncertainties and a wide range of possible solutions. It's not unusual to see models flip flop before finally locking onto the pattern. Regardless of the outcome, I'm satisfied with this winter. That said, having one more cold and snowy pattern in February would be an extra special bonus.

It’ll probably snow again at some point this winter.

[PortKells]

The fact is that there is still lots of uncertainties and a wide range of possible solutions. It's not unusual to see models flip flop before finally locking onto the pattern. Regardless of the outcome, I'm satisfied with this winter. That said, having one more cold and snowy pattern in February would be an extra special bonus.

I'm starting to get the feeling that models can see cold snapsbetter at the 10-15 day range than the 5-10 day range as weird as that is to say.

[Typeing3]

It’ll probably snow again at some point this winter.

#MiddleOfApril


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHXzFahSteQ

[VanCitySouth]

#MiddleOfApril

That was really memorable. It was the near 0° giant snowflakes too. Still the biggest I've seen, some of those clumps were over 5 cm across.

[walthz]

That was really memorable. It was the near 0° giant snowflakes too. Still the biggest I've seen, some of those clumps were over 5 cm across.

So this reminds me of a time many years ago when we were driving through the mountains of South Eastern Oregon during spring break and there were large white fluffy blobs the size of hand sponges splattering onto our windshield and I was giggling like a schoolgirl (sorry is that still PC - probably not).