January 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[Roberts Creeker]

The fog recently was cased by a combination of things: high pressure ridge overhead, stagnant air at the surface, and ample low level moisture.

but, but, but...what about the tsunami? Maybe you can use fog to predict tsunamis?

If you can't trust the weather 'girl' who can you trust?

[Typeing3]

but, but, but...what about the tsunami? Maybe you can use fog to predict tsunamis?

If you can't trust the weather 'girl' who can you trust?

Yeah I honestly have no idea how she thinks the tsunami has any influence on local fog conditions.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Yeah I honestly have no idea how she thinks the tsunami has any influence on local fog conditions.

The claim was by affecting currents, but tsunamis don't affect large-scale circulation patterns, despite how they can temporarily create very strong local currents over widespread regions.

[wetcoast91]

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 8juDQ&s=19

[Typeing3]

^^Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how much snow the GTA picks up in a 24hr/48hr period. Overall, Metro Vancouver seems to have a higher return rate of large snowfalls (>20cm) than the GTA so this type of storm is more unusual there than it would be here.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

^^Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how much snow the GTA picks up in a 24hr/48hr period. Overall, Metro Vancouver seems to have a higher return rate of large snowfalls (>20cm) than the GTA so this type of storm is more unusual there than it would be here.

It’s one of the things that makes our winters so interesting. They are typically mild, but due to our west coast location (and overall seasonal storm patterns) we have good access to moisture during the winter, so we can get a LOT of snow if all the factors line up right. I think Victoria has one of Canada’s higher 24-hour snowfall records (beating out many famously cold and snowy places).

[Typeing3]

It’s one of the things that makes our winters so interesting. They are typically mild, but due to our west coast location (and overall seasonal storm patterns) we have good access to moisture during the winter, so we can get a LOT of snow if all the factors line up right. I think Victoria has one of Canada’s higher 24-hour snowfall records (beating out many famously cold and snowy places).

Among major cities in Canada, I believe Victoria ranks #3 (behind St John's and Halifax) for largest daily snowfall on record.

For frequency of large daily snowfalls (i.e. >15cm, >20cm, >25cm, etc), Metro Vancouver likely handily beats the Prairie cities and most Ontario cities.

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (9).png

[SnowGranny]

Hey guys, what do you think the odds of some winter weather coming back in February.?

[tyweather]

Any thoughts on the cooling effect from the volcano? Apparently cooling effects can be seen if ash goes above 16 km high in the tropics. The ash from Tonga eruption wnt 30km high.

The 1991 Mount Pinotubo eruption cooled the planet for 3 years. It didn't help us for the following winter but maybe the 93 winter was extra cool? One can only hope anyway.

http://eos.org/articles/climate-change- ... -eruptions

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

https://twitter.com/simoncarn/status/14 ... 2564481026

[wetcoast91]

Hey guys, what do you think the odds of some winter weather coming back in February.?

Based on what LR models are showing...maybe late Feb. The polar vortex may become entrenched and elongated out East in the 10-14 day period which may keep heights solidly positive out West.

Subject to change though. It could always flip.

[AbbyJr]

CFS model.

cfs-daily-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-4278400.png

cfs-daily-all-avg-albertabc-t2m_c_anom_7day-4278400.png

[tyweather]

December made my list of months that averaged 0c or colder for Aggassiz.

[Hound]

Sardine Man took driving lessons in the snow. It didn't work out:

huh.jpg