January 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[PortKells]

RGEM total rainfall through 4am Thursday. Past 4 runs trend. Definitely looks drier than earlier runs, but still really wet.

rgem_apcpn_nwus_fh66_trend.gif

Looking more pain-in-the-ass like than state of emergency but we'll see.

[AbbyJr]

RGEM total rainfall through 4am Thursday. Past 4 runs trend. Definitely looks drier than earlier runs, but still really wet.

Looks like the heaviest rain shifts north of the Fraser like a classic Atmospheric River. Better news for the Fraser Valley but the Sea to Sky corridor still looks extremely wet, which is not good. We will see if this trend continues on the 00Z run tonight.

[wetcoast91]

Looks like the heaviest rain shifts north of the Fraser like a classic Atmospheric River. Better news for the Fraser Valley but the Sea to Sky corridor looks extremely wet, which is not good. We will see if this trend continues on the 00Z run tonight.

Agree. Not too concerned about the Fraser Valley. Sea to Sky still looks bad when you factor in the rapid snowmelt under 700m.

[PortKells]

Agree. Not too concerned about the Fraser Valley. Sea to Sky still looks bad when you factor in the rapid snowmelt under 700m.

Washout?

[Wintergirl]

Agree. Not too concerned about the Fraser Valley. Sea to Sky still looks bad when you factor in the rapid snowmelt under 700m.

Great! It's already a mess from today's rain, scared to know what happens in the next 2 days yikes!

[PortKells]

CFS continues to spit out these solutions, yes I know it's not that accurate but it's been relatively consistent.

cfs-daily-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_7day-1641837600-1643760000-1645660800-20.gif

[Hound]

View of Brewers Pond at Silverstar Resort.

brewers.jpg

[Antares]

CFS continues to spit out these solutions, yes I know it's not that accurate but it's been relatively consistent.


cfs-daily-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_7day-1641837600-1643760000-1645660800-20.gif

CFS was the first to see any cold in December. Timing was obviously a couple weeks off but no reason to doubt it seeing pattern changes.

Temp shot up to -2C here now with a vile SSE wind and what looks like light non-snow precip.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Up to 5.3ËšC here. Warmest temperature of the day so far.

Melt, ice! Melt!

[PortKells]

Up to 5.3ËšC here. Warmest temperature of the day so far.

Melt, ice! Melt!

The ice out there is horrific I don't remember the last time it was this bad.

[wetcoast91]

The ice out there is horrific I don't remember the last time it was this bad.

Powdered snow that was compacted. Wet snow that fell over it and froze then rain and more wet snow that was compacted onto that first layer.

In some ways...thank god for the AR.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

The ice out there is horrific I don't remember the last time it was this bad.

Almost fell over walking to the grocery store today. I knew it was going to be super-slippery (rain on top of ice always is) and was being super-careful, yet it still almost wasn’t enough.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Powdered snow that was compacted. Wet snow that fell over it and froze then rain and more wet snow that was compacted onto that first layer.

With lots of freeze/thaw cycles along the way.

[VanCitySouth]

Almost fell over walking to the grocery store today. I knew it was going to be super-slippery (rain on top of ice always is) and was being super-careful, yet it still almost wasn’t enough.

Oh man, add the very poor grip of dress shoes which I have to wear for work and you have a proper hazard. Every street corner pile of slush has become a potential ticket to the ER.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

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00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (3).png