January 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[wetcoast91]

Ruh roh!

He seems to think the AR will stall over us, which would just suck. Valley totals don’t look as terrible as last time but the NS mountains seem to get a hit.

Wouldnt be concerned if the soil wasnt too saturated. Samples still show a high saturation in the profile along a few slopes up S2S. Freeze-thaw has me concerned with landslides up that way...We are going to see a rapid melt as well. Flooding looks to be a major concern for Squamish.

[PortKells]

King Euro:

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-precip_24hr_inch-2053600.png

[Forrest Gump]

Uh? I'm at 4° while stations near me are already reporting 6-7° ? Are they in direct sunlight?
Well at least it is sunny for once. Hard to believe that we didn't get any sunny/clear days during the recent cold snap , which I suppose made the cold spell even more impressive.

[Canada Goose]

https://twitter.com/ScottSeattleWx/stat ... 71874?s=20

[Typeing3]

Finally some signs of a dry pattern in the long range?
https://mobile.twitter.com/commoditywx/ ... 0694873091

https://mobile.twitter.com/commoditywx/ ... 6992634881

[AbbyJr]

Solid -PNA/-EPO on the Euro ensembles but we really need that trough to trend west for the PNW to get cold. Thankfully, there is still lots of time to work out the details.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-3025600.png

[Hound]

He seems to think the AR will stall over us, which would just suck.

Yes, we had enough AR's to last another 10 years. This one can F>R>O!
We deserve a week of beautiful winter sun! Nothing better than sun in winter when it's actually not melting you in a heat dome.

[Feetz of Snow]

When does the atmospheric river start this week?

[Forrest Gump]

Uh? I'm at 4° while stations near me are already reporting 6-7° ? Are they in direct sunlight?
Well at least it is sunny for once. Hard to believe that we didn't get any sunny/clear days during the recent cold snap , which I suppose made the cold spell even more impressive.

Now 10° ?! I'm only at 6°
I'll have to go for a drive and see what the car thermometer reads.

[AbbyJr]

Unfortunately, it looks like a major Atmospheric River rain event is likely locked in for next week. Hopefully the snowpack is able to absorb at least some of the modelled rainfall. Even at that, I'm still concerned about flooding and landslides if this verifies.

rgem-all-vancouverski-precip_48hr_inch-2042800.png

[AbbyJr]

When does the atmospheric river start this week?

Tuesday through Wednesday.

[Typeing3]

Unfortunately, it looks like a major Atmospheric River rain event is likely locked in for next week. Hopefully the snowpack is able to absorb at least some of the modelled rainfall. Even at that, I'm still concerned about flooding and landslides if this verifies.

rgem-all-vancouverski-precip_48hr_inch-2042800.png

A different kind of North of the Fraser special.

[AbbyJr]

A different kind of North of the Fraser special.

Looks bad South of the Fraser as well. Do you think the snowpack will help to absorb the rainfall to lower the flooding and landslide risk?

[Canada Goose]

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... pvU7A&s=19

[Forrest Gump]

Now 10° ?! I'm only at 6°
I'll have to go for a drive and see what the car thermometer reads.

Car read 8° , right smack in the middle, which makes sense.

Edit:Now 11° being reported