January 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[Hawk]

For the record, EC stated for temps to drop to -4c TOMORROW afternoon in Hope. Ummm 30 hours late?

[SouthSardiswx]

I wouldn’t be so sure… maybe only 5 cm on the immediate coast, but still think 15–25 cm is a good guess for most of the metro area based on last night’s studying the models. It’s not going to be a big arctic blast, but it should be cooler with lower dew points Wednesday; a push of cooler air from the east has been very consistent in the models. Models have also been consistent on there being ample moisture.

And Mark Madryga agrees with the 15–25 cm assessment:
https://twitter.com/MMadryga/status/1478344906376716292

Especially with arctic air advancing currently Rubes.

[Hawk]

I wouldn’t be so sure… maybe only 5 cm on the immediate coast, but still think 15–25 cm is a good guess for most of the metro area based on last night’s studying the models. It’s not going to be a big arctic blast, but it should be cooler with lower dew points Wednesday; a push of cooler air from the east has been very consistent in the models. Models have also been consistent on there being ample moisture.

And Mark Madryga agrees with the 15–25 cm assessment:
https://twitter.com/MMadryga/status/1478344906376716292

omg ur right!! Annnnnd ur on #teamsnow this time!
Rubus is calling it. Heavy snow starting tomorrow night. 20-30cms

[Hawk]

And EC has adjusted(some) temps accordingly for this week. Wasnt it just yesterday am when it was going to be rain all week for Vanc and Abby? Or was that 2 days ago? I dont remember...they are bouncing temps around so much

[Hawk]

More new EC forecast temps:
Squamish -8c tonight/H-2 tom / H-3c Thurs

Where is everyone..going to work?

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

omg ur right!! Annnnnd ur on #teamsnow this time!
Rubus is calling it. Heavy snow starting tomorrow night. 20-30cms

LOL, padding my estimates by 5 cm. I guess doesn’t want to ever be as “stingy” as I am. I’m not anti-snow, BTW, just (in the wake of multiple busts earlier this season) very model-skeptical when it comes to precipitation type. But the support for widespread acccumulating snow really should be there with Wednesday night’s event… and my 15–25 range is already an adjusted range determined by subtracting snow modelled for unrealistically warm temperatures.

[Hawk]

LOL, padding my estimates by 5 cm. I guess doesn’t want to ever be as “stingy” as I am. I’m not anti-snow, BTW, just (in the wake of multiple busts earlier this season) very model-skeptical when it comes to precipitation type. But the support for widespread acccumulating snow really should be there with Wednesday night’s event… and my 15–25 range is already an adjusted range determined by subtracting snow modelled for unrealistically warm temperatures.

No not padding the numbers...i mean who really knows how much will accumualte right? But what happens if this one busts and you get 2cm slush then rain? It is you that has stated it is never too late for a rug pull...yes? And temps are ever so marginal...
Im just being realistic here..only 36 hours away but very sketchy imo..

[Hawk]

Very Gusty NE winds in Agassiz now
Temperature has dropped almost 3c in two hours. The arctic front is on the move. Abbotsford is next

[Lisa0527]

1 or 2 cm here

[Hawk]

checked out webcams..looks like most people got blanked. Weird. maybe 1-2 cms is the max in the LM..otherwise rain in many locales

[Pomoman]

A handful of cm overnight.

[Storm]

12Z RGEM Snowfall map

Screenshot_20220104-081443_Samsung Internet.jpg

[VanCitySouth]

1 cm overnight

[SouthSardiswx]

.5cm @ the pond in south Sardis this morning -1c.
I'll never catch Gumpy at this snails pace.

[SouthSardiswx]

EC is messing around with the central and eastern valley's forecast, l don't think they expected the arctic air to penetrate as quickly as it did Agassiz is down to -2c Hope is -5c Abby went up one to 2c.the arctic air must be right over Chilliwack or close by l'm waving at it. Lytton is -12c so lots of cold air in the canyon.