January 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[AbbyJr]

The front is now at Cashe Creek. EC has winds shifting westerly in Kamloops tomorrow evening. Judging by the progression, wouldn't the winds shift to westerly in Kamloops later tonight? Is the front forecast to momentarily stall? As it is, EC's forecasts today re: this surge of Arctic air has been a total bust in terms of timing and the depth of the cold.

If I'm not mistaken, this is good news for us for our Wednesday night snowstorm. If there is a deeper cold pool in the interior to tap into, then the temperatures here would likely be colder for duration of the storm. This should result in higher snow ratios. Can somebody correct me if I'm wrong?

[Bonovox]

Light wet snow falling here.

[Weatherhead2]

Roads turned to ice fairly quickly here (Langford). Hearing of a possible motor vehicle Fatality on hwy to sooke. Bear mountain rds on one side were shut down due to ice. If anyone out there on the island is driving take it slow.

[Typeing3]

Clouds are starting to roll in here from the SW but still see a few clear patches overhead.

Those clear breaks did a number to the street here. Looks like a solid sheet of ice now. Nice to freeze up the snowpack though.

-0.2c, dp -0.7c.

[Typeing3]

If I'm not mistaken, this is good news for us for our Wednesday night snowstorm. If there is a deeper cold pool in the interior to tap into, then the temperatures here would likely be colder for duration of the storm. This should result in higher snow ratios. Can somebody correct me if I'm wrong?

Yes. Pressure gradients look to tighten tomorrow morning bringing some weak outflow to the coast thru Thursday morning. If the arctic air source in the interior is colder and closer than modeled then we'll likely run cooler than predicted as well once the outflow ramps up.

My guess as to why the airmass may be overperforming is the deep snowcover present in the interior at the moment.

[AbbyJr]

Yes. Pressure gradients look to tighten tomorrow morning bringing some weak outflow to the coast thru Thursday morning. If the arctic air source in the interior is colder and closer than modeled then we'll likely run cooler than predicted as well once the outflow ramps up.

My guess as to why the airmass may be overperforming is the deep snowcover present in the interior at the moment.

If this is the case, would we still be able to tap into that colder airmass and run colder than modelled? My assumption would be no since the cold pool isn't actually deeper but rather surface temperatures are just colder in areas where there is a deep snowpack.

[Storm]

Clouds are starting to roll in here from the SW but still see a few clear patches overhead.

Those clear breaks did a number to the street here. Looks like a solid sheet of ice now. Nice to freeze up the snowpack though.

-0.2c, dp -0.7c.

Took my daughter to swim practice, lot's of black ice on side streets.

[Cloverdale]

Brief hail shower

[VanCitySouth]

These showers have fallen apart all day over the Strait. Hopefully that changes relatively quickly.

[Bonovox]

These showers have fallen apart all day over the Strait. Hopefully that changes relatively quickly.

There appears to be a more organized band just to the west of the Island on satellite. I suspect that will stay together, but we'll have to wait and see.

[Storm]

There appears to be a more organized band just to the west of the Island on satellite. I suspect that will stay together, but we'll have to wait and see.

Nothing meaningful before 11 pm. on the models so we just have to wait.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS. 4pm Wednesday to 10am Thursday

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh48-66.gif

Looks like 15-25cm of across the lower mainland.

[VanCitySouth]

00z GFS. 4pm Wednesday to 10am Thursday

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh48-66.gif
Looks like 15-25cm of across the lower mainland.

And a risk of ice in the morning, potentially drive time. Fun.

[Bonovox]

Nothing meaningful before 11 pm. on the models so we just have to wait.

I am going model-less for tonight. Just like old times.

[Storm]

11 -12 tonight the more widespread snow.

ref1km_ptype.us_nw.png