January 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[PortKells]

Thanks hound, and good work. I joined up in 2016 and I remember being extremely confused with Nitos posts but gradually came to understand the game. I guess it's a bit much for people even those who are just lurkers.

I will try to post more analysis for maps, but I would like to just ask if you're looking at say, a snowfall map Im guessing that is different than a 500 mb ensemble mean?

[Wintergirl]

omg u r so lucky

No not lucky, wet heavy snow we are snowed in with 5 ft high snow banks along driveway. Melt of 2022 should be fun ahhhh. Still snowing but raining mixed in, 3 hrs of plowing snow and our trucks barely fit in driveway haha. Will post pictures soon it's pretty hilarious the snow banks

[Michael1]

Well, this cold snap has ended for me, at least. However, threading the needle for a white Christmas (less than 10% chance) was remarkable, especially with a full week of multiple snowfalls and cold air. Looking forward, I am reminded of the winter of 88/89. I was living in Victoria. We did have a brief period of colder weather around New Year's. Then we got hit with extreme cold on Jan 31. Although the La Nina this year is not as strong, we do have a robust, cold PDO, which was lacking in 89. It'll be interesting to see what happens in the next 2-3 months.

[Catnip]

For those who questioned tomorrow morning ability for wet snow. Here's is 925mb at 10 am tomorrow morning.
-1°C ~ -2°C I am not saying it will snow, just what the models are showing.
Euro
925th.us_nw-2.png
GFS
925th.us_nw-3.png
GEM
925th.us_nw-4.png

Thanks for the comparison!

GFS looks like it has easterly winds, I’m assuming that is why it is a bit cooler.

[PortKells]

Well, this cold snap has ended for me, at least. However, threading the needle for a white Christmas (less than 10% chance) was remarkable, especially with a full week of multiple snowfalls and cold air. Looking forward, I am reminded of the winter of 88/89. I was living in Victoria. We did have a brief period of colder weather around New Year's. Then we got hit with extreme cold on Jan 31. Although the La Nina this year is not as strong, we do have a robust, cold PDO, which was lacking in 89. It'll be interesting to see what happens in the next 2-3 months.

There will almost certainly be more cold in the end of January or early February IMO. My guess is it starts as more of a dry cold, just a hunch. Probably less extreme too.

[Typeing3]

Cold was getting boring. I personally like more active patterns. Strong lows, wild temp swings, windstorms, heavy rain and snow with dynamic fronts.

That's just me though.

You need to move east for that.

[Catnip]

Well, this cold snap has ended for me, at least. However, threading the needle for a white Christmas (less than 10% chance) was remarkable, especially with a full week of multiple snowfalls and cold air. Looking forward, I am reminded of the winter of 88/89. I was living in Victoria. We did have a brief period of colder weather around New Year's. Then we got hit with extreme cold on Jan 31. Although the La Nina this year is not as strong, we do have a robust, cold PDO, which was lacking in 89. It'll be interesting to see what happens in the next 2-3 months.

Agreed!

Perfect timing for us to get cold/snow.

I think this is how I will remember this winter, regardless of what happens going forward.

Still lots of winter left though, and there are some signs pointing to some colder weather later in the month.

[wetcoast91]

Thanks for the comparison!

GFS looks like it has easterly winds, I’m assuming that is why it is a bit cooler.

Precip intensity as well. It's why the NAM develops a period of heavy wet snow with stronger shortwave tomorrow.

[PortKells]

Positive height anomalies moving westward towards the north Pacific shown here means good things almost always. The EPS is the least aggressive model to do this, but they all show it. I trust the EPS' slower progression. The weeklies however were quite aggressive so I'm thinking keep a close eye on it.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1641124800-1641859200-1642420800-20.gif

[wetcoast91]

You need to move east for that.

I got to experience a Nor'easter once in my life when I was in Halifax. The 100km/hr winds with the heavy wet snow made it feel like I was getting pelted with snowballs.

It was +15C the night before. Had about 12 hours of intense wet snow the next day which amounted to 40cm and another 20cm of powder on top by the following morning.

[Hawk]

For those who questioned tomorrow morning ability for wet snow. Here's is 925mb at 10 am tomorrow morning.
-1°C ~ -2°C I am not saying it will snow, just what the models are showing.
Euro
925th.us_nw-2.png
GFS
925th.us_nw-3.png
GEM
925th.us_nw-4.png

ya total guess on my part but this may end up as heavy snowshowers..the kind where we get eeeeeuge flakes and rapid accums. Total guess
We will see what it looks like later today or in the am tom

[Typeing3]

I got to experience a Nor'easter once in my life when I was in Halifax. The 100km/hr winds with the heavy wet snow made it feel like I was getting pelted with snowballs.

It was +15C the night before. Had about 12 hours of intense wet snow the next day which amounted to 40cm and another 20cm of powder on top by the following morning.

That sounds awesome. Would love to experience something like that one day.

[PortKells]

GEM ensembles. Same idea.

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1641124800-1641859200-1642507200-20.gif

[Hound]

I will try to post more analysis for maps, but I would like to just ask if you're looking at say, a snowfall map Im guessing that is different than a 500 mb ensemble mean?

You can post whatever you like, just drop a bit of an explanation, since sometimes the maps etc. don't really say what they are indicating, so it's helpful and even a learning experience for those who have no knowledge.

[VanCitySouth]

You can post whatever you like, just drop a bit of an explanation, since sometimes the maps etc. don't really say what they are indicating, so it's helpful and even a learning experience for those who have no knowledge.

It's true. I had no clue what anything beyond surface maps even were 10 years ago. This forum was a boon to learning.