January 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[LynnValley]

yup..the best we would get would be the tropical snow "warm snow". Better than cold rain!!

Ha! Very true

[Monty]

Campbell River to Courtenay getting hammered.

Seems like it’s been non stop up there. Wish there was a good inland station up there with reliable snow data. Comox afb doesn’t really represent most of that area well

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Yikes! Hawk was right about the GFS.

12Z Tuesday, when modeled temperatures start supporting snow at the surface. Can assume that all the lowland snow here is just terrain bleed and subtract it from the next map. Note the 12.1 over Vancouver.

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera-1276000.png

18Z Thursday, warming to the point where a changeover to rain becomes likely. That same spot now has a 36.6 over it. With compaction that would probably translate to 40–50 cm accumulation. As I said, yikes!

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera-1492000.png

Now, the GooFuS often overdoes the cold air, but at the peak of the event, it's showing these kinds of temperatures:

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-t2m_c-1398400.png

Even if you pad those numbers generously, still cold enough for snow. Be pessimistic and assume the warmer temps cut the snow in totals half, and it's still the biggest snow dump of the season.

Would feel much better about these prospects if the other models climb on board. We shall see.

[wetcoast91]

Doesn't seem much has fallen?

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 7aB4g&s=19

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Doesn't seem much has fallen?

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 7aB4g&s=19

Looks like 7°C rain to me…

[Storm]

Yikes! Hawk was right about the GFS.

12Z Tuesday, when modeled temperatures start supporting snow at the surface. Can assume that all the snow here is just terrain bleed and subtract it from the next map. Note the 12.1 over Vancouver.
gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera-1276000.png

18Z Thursday, warming to the point where a changeover to rain becomes likely. That same spot now has a 36.6 over it. With compaction that would probably translate to 40–50 cm accumulation. As I said, yikes!
gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera-1492000.png

Now, the GooFuS often overdoes the cold air, but at the peak of the event, it's showing these kinds of temperatures:
gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-t2m_c-1398400.png

Even if you pad those numbers generously, still cold enough for snow. Be pessimistic and assume the warmer temps cut the snow in totals half, and it's still the biggest snow dump of the season.

Would feel much better about these prospects if the other models climb on board. We shall see.

12z GEM

sfct.us_nw-1.png

[Canada Goose]

Winter is over.

[Antares]

Winter is over.

Jim?

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

12z GEM
sfct.us_nw-1.png

Excellent, let’s see some more models climb on board the snow train, particularly the Euro.

[Michael1]

the cold air was less resilient than usual in our area and I can't see a way to getting more snow, without a substantial cool down.

[Storm]

Excellent, let’s see some more models climb on board the snow train, particularly the Euro.

Where have you been? Euro?

Last night Euro

sfct.us_nw-2.png

[VanCitySouth]

oh good heavens. Shoveling 2" of this stuff was worse than 11" of the other stuff.

[Hawk]

Doesn't seem much has fallen?

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 7aB4g&s=19

That area gets so much 0c heavy snow its stupid

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Where have you been? Euro?

Last night Euro
sfct.us_nw-2.png

Precip during the time it’s cold? Last I checked the Euro, the timing was off. Mostly dry by the time it’s cold enough for lowland snow. Euro is basically modelling flurries at this point. We shall see.

[wetcoast91]

Precip during the time it’s cold? Last I checked the Euro, the timing was off. Mostly dry by the time it’s cold enough for lowland snow. Euro is basically modelling flurries at this point. We shall see.

Look at 925mb temps.