December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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SouthSardiswx
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

East Chilliwack wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 8:18 am What was it they predicted for Christmas for Chilliwack? 5cm or 5-10? Anyhow we ended up with 20-25cm. Best part was they didn’t even correct throughout the day like they usually do.
Correct 5cm to 10cm, in the 3 years I've been out here there accuracy has been so so at best,
except for the 44c day and the AR events.
Snowfall l've seen more over performing than really busts, Valentines 2019 was a bust but that was region wide l recall.
Last edited by SouthSardiswx on Wed Dec 29, 2021 8:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm :mehrain:
:hockey: South Sardinies: 0cm :morerain:
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Ended up with -11.3 for a low.
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Currently -9c @ the pond in south Sardis, with a Cat: 2.5 (Moderate pant ripper) NE out flow on the new Sardine wind scale.
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm :mehrain:
:hockey: South Sardinies: 0cm :morerain:
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Abby_wx »

Monty wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 8:27 am Modest low level outflow returns Tuesday on the GFS. Highs would be below freezing.

Tough to say how far up the valley the onshore flow pushes on Sunday. Definitely Abbotsford west. Less certain as you east
Yup. Never bet against a warm-up. The key question is for how long and how much snow melt occurs. It would be nice to go into the next cold spell with some snow still left on the ground.
:dragon:

Fall/Winter 2023/24
Low min: -16.6C (Jan 12th)
Low max: -9.9C (Jan 12th)
Snowfall: 8.0 cm
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Monty »

12z Ukmet is very generous with available QPF tonight. Wonder if the euro will follow
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Monty wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 8:27 am Modest low level outflow returns Tuesday on the GFS. Highs would be below freezing.

Tough to say how far up the valley the onshore flow pushes on Sunday. Definitely Abbotsford west. Less certain as you east
The question is, does that happen while at the same time the cold air at the surface refuses to scour out?
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Monty »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 9:24 am The question is, does that happen while at the same time the cold air at the surface refuses to scour out?
It’s also the GFS which is historically the most aggressive model when it comes to pushing arctic air into the bc south coast
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by arbetrader »

Temperature I woke up to today in sun peaks was -31 this morning. My neighbor has a weather station setup. I did the boiling water test, it was kinda cool in a nerdy kind of way lol.

On another note, as I haven't been paying attention to yxx stuff, did they actually hit -16.9? That's what the station says they reported but that seems a bit aggressive, or?

If that's truly the case, they eclipsed the November 85 record... That being said I remember Rogers cable systems reporting -18 in abbotsford Back in 85, their station was only about 2km east from the airport.
Last edited by arbetrader on Wed Dec 29, 2021 1:25 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Monty »

It’s the WRF but 👀
9B3EB75A-9327-4B55-BB44-2B27F038810C.gif
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

2m temp.
ens_image-2.png
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

12z HRDPS snowfall map, please
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

Monty wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 9:30 am It’s the WRF but 👀

9B3EB75A-9327-4B55-BB44-2B27F038810C.gif
That's actually quite similar to some other maps which have been showing an enhancement feature over SW metro
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Climo :cancel: 0 to 0 :14clown: GFS

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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

HRRR and HDRPS for tomorrow afternoon.
hrrr-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-0908800.png
hrdps-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-0908800.png
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It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 9:44 am HRRR and HDRPS for tomorrow afternoon.

hrrr-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-0908800.png
hrdps-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-0908800.png
Still upping the ante eh? The trend is our friend for this one then.
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Climo :cancel: 0 to 0 :14clown: GFS

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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by LadnerWeather »

VanCitySouth wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 9:37 am That's actually quite similar to some other maps which have been showing an enhancement feature over SW metro
Im starting to think closer to 15cm is pretty likely in many places with the higher ratios. Looking like this will be a nice event for us in western sections of the LM :thumbup:
Currently located in Tsawwassen, beside Tsawwassen Mills
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