December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

[Catnip]

Just got back from a walk in the park.

Mundy Lake

5EEAE4CD-282D-40B1-97A9-7AE471DE9824.jpeg

36F45501-D205-4DE9-920A-413BB91A178F.jpeg

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[Flakey]

Nito would have loved the aftermath of that December 1972 arctic blast. Two weeks of neverending heavy rain.

We lived in an old poorly insulated house I still remember the huge icicles hanging from the roof and thinking how cool it was when they came crashing down. Lots of flooding with the rain.

[Typeing3]

There was a La Niña cold snap in December 2009 that was pretty cold in Portland (several days with lows of -10˚C or less), but for some reason it doesn't seem that it was as extreme in Vancouver. Probably backdoor via the Columbia Gorge. The disappointing thing was that it was 100% dry. On the other hand, that allowed me to get into the Gorge to see the frozen waterfalls (in a typical blast, the roads through the gorge get closed by snow and ice by the time the falls get nice and frozen).

Sure you're not thinking of Dec 2013? Winter '13-14 was cold neutral/weak nina.

Winter '09-10 was a moderate El Nino, though we did get a cold snap in early December 2009 too.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Sure you're not thinking of Dec 2013? Winter '13-14 was cold neutral/weak nina.

Winter '09-10 was a moderate El Nino, though we did get a cold snap in early December 2009 too.

I’m thinking of ’09. I typed Niña when I should have typed Niño.

[Typeing3]

Just got back from a walk in the park.

Mundy Lake

5EEAE4CD-282D-40B1-97A9-7AE471DE9824.jpeg
36F45501-D205-4DE9-920A-413BB91A178F.jpeg
C58EF809-F1D2-47DE-938D-F2BA6829C448.jpeg

Safe to walk on both lakes in the park yet?

[Typeing3]

The landslides would be horrific if that were to happen again.

Lots of flooding too. There's actually a pretty detailed write up on that period on page 127 of this document: https://www.env.gov.bc.ca/wsd/public_sa ... south2.pdf

[Catnip]

Safe to walk on both lakes in the park yet?

There were some people that walked out on it, not so sure it’s ready for that yet.

[AbbyJr]

18Z Euro: Barely a cm for Abbotsford. Throw it out.

18Z: HRDPS: Close to 10 cm. Decent.

00Z NBM: Just over 5 cm but this is a 10:1 map. Likely underdone as snow ratios will be higher. The kuchera map would likely look similar to the HRDPS. Again, decent.

Keep in mind, I'm referring to Abbotsford. Metro Vancouver looks to be the score zone on all models.

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera-0876400.png

hrdps-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera-0876400.png

nbm-conus-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-0887200.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

18Z Euro: Barely a cm for Abbotsford. Throw it out.

18Z: HRDPS: Close to 10 cm. Decent.

00Z NBM: Just over 5 cm but this is a 10:1 map. Likely underdone as snow ratios will be higher. The kuchera map would likely look similar to the HRDPS. Again, decent.

Keep in mind, I'm referring to Abbotsford. Metro Vancouver looks to be the score zone on all models.

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera-0876400.png

hrdps-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera-0876400.png

nbm-conus-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-0887200.png

Interestingly, all three say almost exactly 11 cm for Vancouver. Can’t complain.

[Catnip]

VLAD!!

https://twitter.com/vlad_rad/status/147 ... 11008?s=21

[Catnip]

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... 75619?s=21

[tyweather]

This cold snap is definitely a throwback to what we saw more frequently in the 90s and prior decades, where we dip well below freezing and it doesn't take much time to freeze the ponds/lakes over, unlike what we've seen in recent times when we've had a couple prolonged events (Dec 2016 and Feb 2019) but with far less significant cold.

Heard people are skating on the pond at Vanier Park. Saw a bunch of people skating on a pond on the west side of the Pitt River too. I'm assuming the serpentine fen is solidly frozen by now as well?

Found some pictures of Trout Lake from yesterday. Seems to be okay to walk on in spots.
https://twitter.com/stephenbraverm1/sta ... 0033655816

https://twitter.com/howyougo/status/1475704036749836288

City of Vancouver playing it safe so far though, Lost Lagoon seems pretty frozen over as well. Ice is probably too thin... for now.
https://twitter.com/GERRYODAY/status/14 ... 7842378752

Yes, the Serpentine Fen is frozen and people were already skating on it yesterday and Saturday as well.

[Canada Goose]

https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/stat ... 88995?s=20

[Catnip]

https://youtu.be/KdNaQ5TSvEI

[Typeing3]

18Z Euro: Barely a cm for Abbotsford. Throw it out.

18Z: HRDPS: Close to 10 cm. Decent.

00Z NBM: Just over 5 cm but this is a 10:1 map. Likely underdone as snow ratios will be higher. The kuchera map would likely look similar to the HRDPS. Again, decent.

Keep in mind, I'm referring to Abbotsford. Metro Vancouver looks to be the score zone on all models.

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera-0876400.png

hrdps-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera-0876400.png

nbm-conus-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-0887200.png

Sunshine coast special?