August 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

Not too bad for the PNW/SW BC so far this year. No huge torch, but some spots slightly above normal.

EB2HkJrW4AEBsRD.jpg

Our coldest Feb since 1936 definitely played a huge part in getting the anomalies down to near zero. Otherwise we were above normal in Jan, April, May and June. Near normal March and July

[Antares]

The progression seems similar to 2016. All models were predicting an El Nino and backed off later in the summer.

It's time we had a winter with sub -10C temps and a heavy, region-wide snowfall (08/09)...for an extended duration (16/17).

I would love a repeat of 16/17 but with more snow and more shots of frigid air.

[AbbyJr]

It's time we had a winter with sub -10C temps and a heavy, region-wide snowfall (08/09)...for an extended duration (16/17).

I would love a repeat of 16/17 but with more snow and more shots of frigid air.

So 68/69?

[John]

Some people are saying 49/50 are in the cards this winter 1950 January was quite chilly I remember. Anyone else remember?

[Antares]

A January 1950 redux would be an extremely extremely tall order, even amongst past cold periods such as the 1950-1972 timeframe.

Buuuuut, maybe something like that will be the catalyst that pops the region's cold/snow cherry again. Something similar has to happen one of these years...

[Monty]

I’m pretty skeptical we will see anything like January 1950 in our lifetimes. I would trade it for a 1916 anyways.

[Typeing3]

It's time we had a winter with sub -10C temps and a heavy, region-wide snowfall (08/09)...for an extended duration (16/17).

I would love a repeat of 16/17 but with more snow and more shots of frigid air.

December and February have shown they can still deliver in recent years. However, most of our classic Arctic outbreaks occur in January. We haven't seen a top tier January in decades. Hell, the last time YVR dropped below -10C in Jan was back in 2004!

[Typeing3]

I’m pretty skeptical we will see anything like January 1950 in our lifetimes. I would trade it for a 1916 anyways.

January 1950 was a full three degrees colder than 1916. Also had a lot more snow.

[Hawk]

You guys keep dreaming..and buy lots of lottery tickets too that's how much chance we have seeing a cold winter again imo. Last 25 years has produced very little in prolonged cold spells with COLD temps and heavy snowfalls region wide. Like Monty said..not in our lifetimes. Climate is def warmer. But why?

[Monty]

January 1950 was a full three degrees colder than 1916. Also had a lot more snow.

They were very similar on the island and February 1916 had a huge blizzard on the island. Both January and February 1916 were slightly snowier than January 1950 here.

https://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/ ... ow1916.htm

[John]

You guys keep dreaming..and buy lots of lottery tickets too that's how much chance we have seeing a cold winter again imo. Last 25 years has produced very little in prolonged cold spells with COLD temps and heavy snowfalls region wide. Like Monty said..not in our lifetimes. Climate is def warmer. But why?

Well said!

[Typeing3]

They were very similar on the island and February 1916 had a huge blizzard on the island. Both January and February 1916 were slightly snowier than January 1950 here.

https://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/ ... ow1916.htm

I know of the 1916 blizzard over there. Was the greatest snowfall until 1996 in Victoria. I've seen the stats from Shawnigan Lake for back then too...was an absolutely insane two month period. Snow depths must have eclipsed 200cm.

Over on the mainland, temps were colder with more outflow and less snowfall. If we're matching up Jan and Feb 1916 with the same period in 1950, I'd take 1916 too. This was downtown Vancouver in Feb 1916

[tyweather]

Hot spot in BC right now is Fort Nelson, a bit surprising considering the clear skies in Southern BC now. But this weekend looks like mountain snow will be in the Fort Nelson region at mid and high elevations.

[tyweather]

This is more exciting than some shooting stars anyway


417E3B51-9433-48EE-B64C-D6259ABEB45E.gif

This is looking promising for skiing at Cypress this year. Last spring I was wondering if I was making a mistake buying a Silver + pass. Things are looking up.

[Typeing3]

Hot spot in BC right now is Fort Nelson, a bit surprising considering the clear skies in Southern BC now. But this weekend looks like mountain snow will be in the Fort Nelson region at mid and high elevations.

Yep, strong lobe of cold air pushing into northern BC this weekend. Nice to see that vortex hanging around the Yukon/NWT rather than over Hudson Bay/Baffin Island as it had been in the 2013 thru 2018 period.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_16.png

gfs_T850_namer_17.png