Storm wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 8:50 am
Ok Hawk, I will drop this for you.
gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-9072800.thumb.png.5fd18cc71e59a2b8185d3b37347c3a36.png
All kidding aside, the best time to roll into a cold snowy period imo, is early Dec to...maybe 2 months of #patternlock? To early Feb..and maybe beyond? I will take early Feb though. Will we get buried under severe snowstorms this winter? Will the cold air finally unleash and establish at the same time as the AR and funnel copious amounts of snow over the PNW all winter? With the SST's getting an assist? Remember last year the GFS latched onto some incredible cold temps well in advance..maybe this year we get that repeat.
So much potential. I love that we have the cold SST's. Eventually those baby blues will pay off for us this winter
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year!
#patternlock
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
Last night's GEFS extended takes the EPO into negative territory for a period of time. The weeklies from Thursday dip it into negative and then kind of stay neutral. The Canadian, welp, you can't have it all. Never seems to be on our side until its a sure thing. I think this is a major x factor right now as we look into mid December and beyond.
EPO GFS extended nov 27.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Pretty good consensus on a colder storm pattern next weekend. Details are sketchy obviously but could be anything from snow to a major wind event. Euro brings a 967mb low into Vancouver island
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
The latest runs of the GEM (12z) have the Tue/Wed AR as more of a Sea to Sky Squamish/Pemberton event. Good news for the Fraser Valley. Not so good news for those people evacuated in Pemberton. The 12z GFS has it even further North. The models do tend to have a but of a northward bias lately with the exactly location of where the rain band stalls. I can see it sagging more to the south as we get closer to the event.
PortKells wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 9:39 am
Quite the eastern blast on the GEM, as the GOA vortex gets rolling again. It does drop a few cms of slop on us which would be nice to get the snowball rolling.
Anything is welcome at this point to break the chain and dislodge the pattern lock of AR's, floods , mudslides , variants , Canucks losses , Seahawks losses , etc. ,and uplift our mood and spirits.
Last edited by Forrest Gump on Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
Forrest Gump wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:11 am
Anything is welcome at this point to break the chain and dislodge the pattern lock of AR's, floods , mudslides , variants , Canucks losses , Seahawks losses , etc.
Ya once the La Nina winter pattern begins it should put a dent in the ARs. More GOA clipper events and hopefully some drier cold spells. Winter ARs (Dec-March) are more prevalent in neutral years or in very strong El Nino years.
