November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Canada Goose
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Canada Goose »

44.8 mm in Coquitlam.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Typeing3 wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 7:57 pm As was predicted for this time:
nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_4.png
hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_4.png
Screenshot_20211127-200005_MyRadar.jpg
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Storm wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:02 pm Screenshot_20211127-200005_MyRadar.jpg
Not good.

Here's what the latest HRRR is predicting until noon tomorrow.
hrrr_apcpn_nwus_18.png
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Catnip wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 7:56 pm A look back: 1996 ‘Snow Storm of the Century’ hits Vancouver and Victoria

https://globalnews.ca/video/rd/84077165 ... wsource=cl
The 2016-17 'Salt Crisis of the Century' was also a notable event. :mrgreen:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QLSViytsl0
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Tuesday's Atmospheric River:
icon-all-vancouverski-precip_24hr_inch-8349200.png
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

AbbyJr wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:14 pm Tuesday's Atmospheric River:

icon-all-vancouverski-precip_24hr_inch-8349200.png
Looks like the central coast, north/west island and the sunshine coast will take the brunt of that storm.
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_71.png
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

AbbyJr wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:14 pm Tuesday's Atmospheric River:

icon-all-vancouverski-precip_24hr_inch-8349200.png
Monty get's nailed :o we may be spared somewhat Jr. man but still the damage is done.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Typeing3 wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:18 pm Looks like the central coast, north/west island and the sunshine coast will take the brunt of that storm.
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_71.png
Based on that run and model. There is still much uncertainty on the exact trajectory of the Atmospheric River. Time will tell but hopefully the Fraser Valley does not take a direct hit, like some runs were showing. Tonights 00Z ICON shows around 70 mm for Abbotsford on Tuesday.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

00z GFS still looks fairly chilly Thursday into next weekend. Maybe some flurries on Sunday.
33a158f9-3845-40c8-98d4-3588c4a93e78.gif
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Typeing3 wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:38 pm 00z GFS still looks fairly chilly Thursday into next weekend. Maybe some flurries on Sunday.
33a158f9-3845-40c8-98d4-3588c4a93e78.gif
Very similar progression so far as 18z.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Typeing3 wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:07 pm The 2016-17 'Salt Crisis of the Century' was also a notable event. :mrgreen:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QLSViytsl0
C42DB808-5133-4EFF-8214-5F6822F80EE2.jpeg
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Rain is really picking up here now. “It’s raining cats and dogs” according to Davis. Around 26mm on the day. Trajectory is pretty close to due west now it appears. We often get a little shadowing with that but this will likely really funnel into the eastern Fraser valley overnight.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Storm wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:42 pm Very similar progression so far as 18z.
I’d love to see a couple hard freezes next weekend with the real arctic air holding off for another week or two
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Storm wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:42 pm Very similar progression so far as 18z.
Yep, similar but a bit warmer, especially in the mid-long range. More in line with the ensembles.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Monty wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:52 pm I’d love to see a couple hard freezes next weekend with the real arctic air holding off for another week or two
Definitely looks like some modified arctic air moving through the interior late next week into the weekend. A couple hard freezes and some flurries for us on the south coast would be a nice "warning shot".
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