November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

00z GFS

Sunday 10am

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_7.png

Sunday 4pm

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_8 (1).png

Sunday 10pm

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_9 (1).png

Monday 4am

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_10 (1).png

Monday 10am

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_11.png

[John]

00z GFS

Sunday 10am
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_7.png
Sunday 4pm
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_8 (1).png
Sunday 10pm
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_9 (1).png
Monday 4am
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_10 (1).png
Monday 10am
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_11.png

What would you compare this to historically

[SouthSardiswx]

What would you compare this to historically

Probably the biblical floods of Noah John.

[Typeing3]

What would you compare this to historically

Going off the most recent example, I'd say the Jan 31/Feb 1, 2020 AR event. YXX recorded 88.4mm and Pitt Meadows recorded 136.6mm.

Modeled amounts for this Sunday/Monday seem similar.

[SouthSardiswx]

Going off the most recent example, I'd say the Jan 31/Feb 1, 2020 AR event. YXX recorded 88.4mm and Pitt Meadows recorded 136.6mm.

Modeled amounts for this Sunday/Monday seem similar.

Was that followed by Arctic air Thead.?

[SouthSardiswx]

00z GFS

Sunday 10am
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_7.png
Sunday 4pm
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_8 (1).png
Sunday 10pm
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_9 (1).png
Monday 4am
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_10 (1).png
Monday 10am
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_11.png

Looks like it stalls over us for 24 hours.

[Typeing3]

Was that followed by Arctic air Thead.?

It was about 2 weeks after the January 2020 arctic blast but there was also a minor shot of cold air and snow a few days later.

[Weather101]

Time to flood

[Typeing3]

In November, the last time we saw 48hr rainfall totals of 75mm+ at YXX and 100mm+ at Pitt Meadows during the same event (as is modeled for Sunday/Monday) was way back in 2003.

[AbbyJr]

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-precip_48hr_inch-7006400.png

https://twitter.com/wx_washington/statu ... 85926?s=20

[SouthSardiswx]

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-precip_48hr_inch-7006400.png

https://twitter.com/wx_washington/statu ... 85926?s=20

should we evacuate John? do freezing levels fall next week?

[Typeing3]

should we evacuate John? do freezing levels fall next week?

00z GFS shows freezing levels drop considerably by Monday evening.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_12.png

gfs_T850_nwus_14.png

[SouthSardiswx]

00z GFS shows freezing levels drop considerably by Monday evening.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_12.png
gfs_T850_nwus_14.png

Nice good for the local ski hills indeed.

[SouthSardiswx]

I recall Tsnow the Feb. 2020 event was watered-down compared to Feb. 2019? was is it Feb. 2019 that areas like Gumps area and Ladnerman recieved like 20cm of snow?
Which gave Grumpy the coveted in your ear snowfall contest.?

[Typeing3]

I recall Tsnow the Feb. 2020 event was watered-down compared to Feb. 2019? was is it Feb. 2019 that areas like Gumps area and Ladnerman recieved like 20cm of snow?
Which gave Grumpy the coveted in your ear snowfall contest.?

I believe you're thinking of the Feb 21, 2018 snowfall. W/NW winds accompanied by the weak coastal slider brought a pretty uncommon sea effect snow event.

Although the main snowfall during the Feb 2019 cold snap did favour southern locations too. I think Newton and South Surrey did very well with the Feb 11/12 event.