November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[PortKells]

Not at all. It can go either way.

Yep for example1996 cold November followed by a cold December. There are no guarantees no matter what happens.

[Typeing3]

A quick refresher on snowfall stats at YVR.

Average annual snowfall
1941-1970 climate normals: 52.3cm
1951-1980 climate normals: 60.4cm
1961-1990 climate normals: 54.9cm
1971-2000 climate normals: 48.2cm
1981-2010 climate normals: 38.1cm
1991-2020 climate normals: 35.0cm

Long term (1941-2020) annual average: 48.2cm


Annual snowfall since 2009
2009: 26.4cm
2010: 16.8cm
2011: 24.1cm
2012: 27.2cm
2013: 11.6cm
2014: 25.8cm
2015: T
2016: 28.4cm
2017: 43.4cm
2018: 25.8cm
2019: 31.2cm
2020: 45.4cm
2021: 12.6cm

[Catnip]

A quick refresher on snowfall stats at YVR.

Average annual snowfall
1941-1970 climate normals: 52.3cm
1951-1980 climate normals: 60.4cm
1961-1990 climate normals: 54.9cm
1971-2000 climate normals: 48.2cm
1981-2010 climate normals: 38.1cm
1991-2020 climate normals: 35.0cm

Long term (1941-2020) annual average: 48.2cm


Annual snowfall since 2009
2009: 26.4cm
2010: 16.8cm
2011: 24.1cm
2012: 27.2cm
2013: 11.6cm
2014: 25.8cm
2015: T
2016: 28.4cm
2017: 43.4cm
2018: 25.8cm
2019: 31.2cm
2020: 45.4cm
2021: 12.6cm

2021/22 will be decent.

[AbbyJr]

Not at all. It can go either way.

Yup. Personally, I think this winter has a solid chance at being one of the best since 2016/17 or should I dare say 2008/09? But it could also just as easily be a dud like 2011/12 or 2017/18.

We do have a lot in our favour this winter in my opinion though. One key indicator I see is the constant Siberian warming in the stratosphere. This should keep the Polar Vortex in balance so it hopefully doesn't keep the cold locked up north. In addition, long range models continue to suggest that high latitude blocking will dominate the pattern this winter, which is always a good sign, especially in a La Nina. Further, we also should consider the fact that we are coming off a historical heat wave in June followed by a very hot summer and now an unusually active north pacific with multiple historical major cyclones offshore. That, as well as the recent rare tornado that hit UBC. I don't know if there is any scientific evidence to suggest that extremes on one end often carry over to extremes on the other end, but if we can get extreme heat, major cyclones offshore, and a rare tornado, why not assume we can get the arctic air locked in at least once in December or January? In my opinion, it would be very bad luck if our winter fails this season. Lets all hope its a good memorable one.

Its time to shout

Also, if anybody mails me a box of I will be returning them for a full refund.

[Roberts Creeker]

Wind has picked up here as has the temperature. 9.0 right now, up from 4ish this morning.

I had a vet come from Alberta, she came through Kamloops, an icy skating rink, and down the Coquihalla, driving through a blizzard and only able to see a few feet in front of her truck, she said it was the worst she's ever driven through. Everything was timed for this morning so I'm lucky she made it.

[tyweather]

Looks pretty chilly mid month

[SouthSardiswx]

Wind has picked up here as has the temperature. 9.0 right now, up from 4ish this morning.

I had a vet come from Alberta, she came through Kamloops, an icy skating rink, and down the Coquihalla, driving through a blizzard and only able to see a few feet in front of her truck, she said it was the worst she's ever driven through. Everything was timed for this morning so I'm lucky she made it.

Wonder if it was a WPro type blizzard glad she made it safely.

[Glacier]

A quick refresher on snowfall stats at YVR.

Average annual snowfall
1941-1970 climate normals: 52.3cm
1951-1980 climate normals: 60.4cm
1961-1990 climate normals: 54.9cm
1971-2000 climate normals: 48.2cm
1981-2010 climate normals: 38.1cm
1991-2020 climate normals: 35.0cm

Long term (1941-2020) annual average: 48.2cm


Annual snowfall since 2009
2009: 26.4cm
2010: 16.8cm
2011: 24.1cm
2012: 27.2cm
2013: 11.6cm
2014: 25.8cm
2015: T
2016: 28.4cm
2017: 43.4cm
2018: 25.8cm
2019: 31.2cm
2020: 45.4cm
2021: 12.6cm

By contrast, here is Kamloops...

kamloopssnowfall2.png

KAMLOOPSSNOWFALL1.png

[Typeing3]

By contrast, here is Kamloops...

kamloopssnowfall2.png

KAMLOOPSSNOWFALL1.png

How about Agassiz? Since it's currently the oldest active station in the lower mainland.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles

ens_image (14).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (15).png

[Weather101]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ensembleator ... gr%5Etweet

[Weather101]

Yup. Personally, I think this winter has a solid chance at being one of the best since 2016/17 or should I dare say 2008/09? But it could also just as easily be a dud like 2011/12 or 2017/18.

We do have a lot in our favour this winter in my opinion though. One key indicator I see is the constant Siberian warming in the stratosphere. This should keep the Polar Vortex in balance so it hopefully doesn't keep the cold locked up north. In addition, long range models continue to suggest that high latitude blocking will dominate the pattern this winter, which is always a good sign, especially in a La Nina. Further, we also should consider the fact that we are coming off a historical heat wave in June followed by a very hot summer and now an unusually active north pacific with multiple historical major cyclones offshore. That, as well as the recent rare tornado that hit UBC. I don't know if there is any scientific evidence to suggest that extremes on one end often carry over to extremes on the other end, but if we can get extreme heat, major cyclones offshore, and a rare tornado, why not assume we can get the arctic air locked in at least once in December or January? In my opinion, it would be very bad luck if our winter fails this season. Lets all hope its a good memorable one.

Its time to shout

Also, if anybody mails me a box of I will be returning them for a full refund.

https://mobile.twitter.com/50ShadesofVa ... gr%5Etweet

He seems to agree with you

[Weather101]

https://mobile.twitter.com/50ShadesofVa ... gr%5Etweet

[Typeing3]

https://mobile.twitter.com/50ShadesofVa ... gr%5Etweet

He seems to agree with you

Long range 06z GFS agrees too.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_50.png

gfs_T850_nwus_54.png

gfs_T2m_nwus_54.png

[Weather101]

Long range 06z GFS agrees too.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_50.png
gfs_T850_nwus_54.png
gfs_T2m_nwus_54.png

Well here we go lol