Winter 2021-2022

[SouthSardiswx]

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-rang ... update-fa/

after a closer look it's shaping up something good l'm cautiously optimistic.
When need some of John's analogs from the 1800's.

[Typeing3]

October update of the UKMET model for Dec/Jan/Feb .

500mb height anomalies

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850mb temp anomalies.

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[Typeing3]

Detailed winter forecast from someone who's been fairly accurate with their past predictions: https://www.scribd.com/document/5317305 ... er-Outlook

Analogues are 1961-62, 1974-75 (x2), 2001-02, 2017-18 (x2), 2020-21.

[SouthSardiswx]

I notice the ones that are calling for an epic eastern winter and a mild west coast are the eastern based mets like Global t.v.'s Anthony Farnell or E.C's David Phillips.
The sad thing is they only spend afew seconds on us and 5 min. on the east.
Kristi Gordon say's mild and wet every year even in 2016/2017 and 2017/2018.

[Typeing3]

Weatherbell updated winter forecast

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[Monty]

Weatherbell updated winter forecast
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Seems reasonable. I’d expect a cold winter on the prairies. Perhaps if things amplify enough we get in on it. Or we end up on the edge with lots of cold rain and a big snow year in the mountains

[SouthSardiswx]

Seems reasonable. I’d expect a cold winter on the prairies. Perhaps if things amplify enough we get in on it. Or we end up on the edge with lots of cold rain and a big snow year in the mountains

An Abbotsford epic cold rain winter.

[Pumpkin Seed]

An Abbotsford epic cold rain winter.

An epic cold rain winter for Richmond for sure!

[SouthSardiswx]

An epic cold rain winter for Richmond for sure!

no doubt, nice to have you back Pumpkinpie.

[Pumpkin Seed]

no doubt, nice to have you back Pumpkinpie.

I only come to see you guys from Nov 1 to Feb 28, every year.

[SouthSardiswx]

I only come to see you guys from Nov 1 to Feb 28, every year.

at least your regular, believe me you don't miss much after Feb. 28th what happens in a leap year does that extra day effect your schedule?

[SouthSardiswx]

I only come to see you guys from Nov 1 to Feb 28, every year.

Usually the Gumps/Sardine comedy act goes off the rails by Dec.1st. much like the Knuckles do every year.

[Pumpkin Seed]

at least your regular, believe me you don't miss much after Feb. 28th what happens in a leap year does that extra day effect your schedule?

Who cares about an extra day of cold rain?

[Typeing3]

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[PortKells]

I'm going to attempt a winter forecast, based on odds and quality rather than attempting to predict what the progression will be.

5/5 - 2008/09, 1996/97, 1990/91 - 10%
4/5 - 2016/17, 2006/07, 1992/93 - 15%
3/5 - 2018/19, 2013/14, 2011/12 - 30%
2/5 - 2019/20, 2020/21, 2012/13 - 25%
1/5 - 1999/00, 2015/16, 2014/15 - 15 %

I think 10% chance of a top tier winter is a tad generous but this winter comes after a firehose autumn, which can be a sign of good things. A 4/5 winter is slightly more likely, but the best chances are for a 3/5 average winter where some win, some lose. Unfortunately due to climo you have to accept that things can completely flop and you get a 2 or a 1. My biggest fear is a 1999/2000 where you can barely go outside due to the constant firehose.

I was more optimistic about this winter but I'm. not sure I like the early returns. The GOA vortex can be impossible to kill as we've seen the last two winters. I hope it doesn't come down to needing an SSW and a late winter save again. Right now that's a very good possibility.