October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Temp 0˚C, DP -2˚C. A freeze without a frost to pair with Friday’s frost without a freeze.

[Typeing3]

First freeze of the season here. Hit 0.0c just at sunrise.

[Antares]

Reached -8.8C this morning here and up to a scorching +3.4C now.

[AbbyJr]

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-6977600.png

[AbbyJr]

https://twitter.com/SeattleWXGuy/status ... 7fA-g&s=19

[PortKells]

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-6977600.png

Low snow levels, definitely not Arctic though, yet.

[Typeing3]

I recently compiled snowfall totals for almost every station across the Lower Mainland for the January 1971 snowstorm. Keep in mind, most of these observations are from the old volunteer stations at EC, hence the difference in totals over small areas could be exaggerated due to measuring errors.

Overall, this snowstorm was one of the most significant in recorded history for many areas of Metro Vancouver. I attribute the generally lower totals in S and E Metro Vancouver (Surrey/Maple Ridge) and the Fraser Valley to the track of precip bands and strength of outflow. Temperatures in the valley were also much colder than areas to the west (ex. Sumas Prairie had a high of -11.7c on Jan 11th compared with -3.9c at YVR).

January 1971 Snowstorm Totals Lower Mainland (1).PNG

January 1971 Snowstorm Totals Lower Mainland (2).PNG

January 1971 Snowstorm Totals Lower Mainland (3).PNG

[Weather101]

We are definitely now in the realm of possibilities of getting snow. Always fun when you get to this time of the season. Clown range has a bit more hope.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

We are definitely now in the realm of possibilities of getting snow. Always fun when you get to this time of the season. Clown range has a bit more hope.

There will be an impactful snow event in late November or early December. I know this because that is when I am planning to move a chunk of my stuff. You’re welcome.

[Weather101]

There will be an impactful snow event in late November or early December. I know this because that is when I am planning to move a chunk of my stuff. You’re welcome.

I saw your earlier post, I run a moving company and I wish I would be able to help you with the cross border moving but with the Covid restrictions it’s difficult. When are you exactly moving ? Shoot me a private message

[Typeing3]

There will be an impactful snow event in late November or early December. I know this because that is when I am planning to move a chunk of my stuff. You’re welcome.

Similar timeframe as some of the analogues (1970-71, 1975-76, 2007-08, 2010-11, 2011-12)...

[AbbyJr]

Meteorologist Pete Parsons with the "Oregon Department of Forestry" in his winter forecast update maintains 1971/72, 1996/97, and 2008/09 as the best analogs for this upcoming winter. Would certainly be epic if it verified.

Here is his updated winter forecast video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HQn-rEmE_M

[PortKells]

Meteorologist Pete Parsons with the "Oregon Department of Forestry" in his winter forecast update maintains 1970/71, 1996/97, and 2008/09 as the best analogs for this upcoming winter. Would certainly be epic if it verified.

Here is his updated winter forecast video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HQn-rEmE_M

Ok..that's insane. I think he could be one of those meteorologists who let's his own weather preferences slightly cloud his judgement. I do hope he's right of course.

[SouthSardiswx]

https://twitter.com/SeattleWXGuy/status ... 90723?s=20

Snow maps starting Nov. 1st Jr. man.

[SouthSardiswx]

I recently compiled snowfall totals for almost every station across the Lower Mainland for the January 1971 snowstorm. Keep in mind, most of these observations are from the old volunteer stations at EC, hence the difference in totals over small areas could be exaggerated due to measuring errors.

Overall, this snowstorm was one of the most significant in recorded history for many areas of Metro Vancouver. I attribute the generally lower totals in S and E Metro Vancouver (Surrey/Maple Ridge) and the Fraser Valley to the track of precip bands and strength of outflow. Temperatures in the valley were also much colder than areas to the west (ex. Sumas Prairie had a high of -11.7c on Jan 11th compared with -3.9c at YVR).

January 1971 Snowstorm Totals Lower Mainland (1).PNG
January 1971 Snowstorm Totals Lower Mainland (2).PNG
January 1971 Snowstorm Totals Lower Mainland (3).PNG

Awesome Tman.