October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

[SouthSardiswx]

November 1985 driest on record (and coldest) following a wet October. In 2019 we had a very dry November. What about Dec 2009 which was sunny and dry following copious amounts of rain in Nov 2009. I remember Dec 1989 was foggy with inversions around Christmas. Same with 1995, 1999, 2001. It's actually quite normal so I'd expect to see at least one decent ridging event just as long as it doesn't take over as the predominant pattern like in 00/01 or in 13/14. That's no good.

Awesome digging Cman.

[wetcoast91]

That windstorm this weekend really looking unlikely as the low just meanders off the coast. Might even squeeze out a dry day on Sunday.

[Monty]

That windstorm this weekend really looking unlikely as the low just meanders off the coast. Might even squeeze out a dry day on Sunday.

Yea. That thing is bombing way too far west to be much of a concern at this point. Could change of course. Big waves on the coast for the storm watchers.

[Coquitlam79]

Picture2.jpg

The predicted pattern starting in November and into December. Similar to 2002, 2005 or 2011. Sunny stretches and maybe some fog.That is definitely not a la Nina pattern but i think it will change to a cooler pattern at some point in December or early Jan.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

And now that the neighborhood aspen groves* are glowing golden, here comes the wind to strip them bare.

* Yes, aspens are native to this ecoregion. They are not as numerous as they are in the Rocky Mountains, but they are found in scattered areas.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Picture2.jpg

The predicted pattern starting in November and into December. Similar to 2002, 2005 or 2011. Sunny stretches and maybe some fog.That is definitely not a la Nina pattern but i think it will change to a cooler pattern at some point in December or early Jan.

Not a terribly big concern. Warm Novembers in particular do tend to be correlated with snowy winters. Beyond that time frame is deep clown range that I would take with a grain of salt, and at any rate that forecast is silent about what happens in January.

Would be nice to get a big dump of snow (with lots of cold air to make it dry snow that lasts longer than a few days) in late December or January, when the lower sun angles are most favorable.

[Antares]

Some pics from a few days ago here:

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Some pics from a few days ago here:

Western Larch (Larix occidentalis), nice.

[Antares]

Western Larch (Larix occidentalis), nice.

Yeah they are literally covering huge areas here. Mountains and hills of gold/yellow.

[wetcoast91]

Yea. That thing is bombing way too far west to be much of a concern at this point. Could change of course. Big waves on the coast for the storm watchers.

Also, notice the past few runs show rising heights in the Eastern Pacific starting next week, storm track takes aim up north and we get quick hitting fronts. Looking at potentially drier conditions starting early Nov.

No surprise but Northern Canada/Arctic region will be running warmer than normal to start off the season (again). Climate change really sucks. Unlikely to see any early cold snap across the CONUS.

[Typeing3]

Also, notice the past few runs show rising heights in the Eastern Pacific starting next week, storm track takes aim up north and we get quick hitting fronts. Looking at potentially drier conditions starting early Nov.

Still looks pretty wet for our region into the long range.

[John]

Also, notice the past few runs show rising heights in the Eastern Pacific starting next week, storm track takes aim up north and we get quick hitting fronts. Looking at potentially drier conditions starting early Nov.

No surprise but Northern Canada/Arctic region will be running warmer than normal to start off the season (again). Climate change really sucks. Unlikely to see any early cold snap across the CONUS.

Ok mr knows the future your starting early with the no cold is coming bs lol

[AbbyJr]

Slight eastward trend on 12Z Euro with the massive low for Sunday.

12Z:

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-mslp_anom-5120000.png

00Z:

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-mslp_anom-5120000 (1).png

[AbbyJr]

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 09957?s=20

[Typeing3]

Some pics from a few days ago here:

[

Is that near Cranbrook?